IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/hbsarb/128.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bedroht die künftige demographische Entwicklung die Vermögenswerte kapitalgedeckter Altersversorgungssysteme? Auswertung des Standes der internationalen Forschung

Author

Listed:
  • Döring, Diether
  • Buth, Rainer
  • Rosengart, Anja Helena

Abstract

Die derzeitigen Altersvorsorgesysteme stehen durch die demographischen Entwicklungen in den meisten Industrieländern in absehbarer Zukunft vor gravierenden Problemen. Da die staatliche Alterssicherung keine adäquate Versorgung im Alter sicherstellt, muss zusätzlich eine Absicherung durch private bzw. betriebliche Vorsorge stattfinden. Es besteht eine stark verbreitete Sorge vieler Akteure, sowohl auf der Seite der Tarifpartner als auch in Unternehmen die betriebliche Altersversorgungssysteme betreiben, hinsichtlich der Renditeentwicklung vor dem Hintergrund der demographischen Entwicklung. Selbst in der interessierten Öffentlichkeit sind unter dem Schlagwort 'Asset-Meltdown' zum Teil dramatische Vorstellungen bezüglich eines Absinkens des Renditeniveaus in der Zeit starker Strukturveränderungen für die Periode nach 2010 vorhanden.Diese Studie untersucht den aktuellen Stand der Forschung zum sogenannten 'Demographie-Crash' anhand der Ergebnisse ausgewählter Forschungsergebnisse. Dabei werden zunächst die zukünftige demographische Entwicklung und die Auswirkungen auf gesellschaftliche, soziale und vor allem volkswirtschaftliche Faktoren dargestellt. In einem weiteren Schritt beschäftigt sich die Studie gezielt mit den verschiedenen Auswirkungen einer alternden Gesellschaft auf die Kapitalmärkte. Diese sind sehr komplex und hängen von verschiedensten Entwicklungen und Faktoren ab. Insbesondere wird die Gefahr eines 'Asset-Meltdown' beleuchtet. Unter diesem Begriff wird verstanden, dass die zahlenmäßig starke Baby-Boomer Generation ab 2010 in Rente geht und im Zuge dessen ihre Vermögensgegenstände zur Finanzierung ihres Lebensstandards an die zahlenmäßig schwächere jüngere Generation zu verkaufen versucht.

Suggested Citation

  • Döring, Diether & Buth, Rainer & Rosengart, Anja Helena, 2007. "Bedroht die künftige demographische Entwicklung die Vermögenswerte kapitalgedeckter Altersversorgungssysteme? Auswertung des Standes der internationalen Forschung," Arbeitspapiere 128, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hbsarb:128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/116585/1/hbs_arbp_128.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James M. Poterba, 2004. "Impact of population aging on financial markets in developed countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q IV), pages 43-53.
    2. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January.
    3. Steven A. Sass & Robert K. Triest, 1997. "Social Security: how social and secure should it be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue jun, pages 29-63.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    6. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    7. Peter S. Yoo, 1994. "Age distributions and returns of financial assets," Working Papers 1994-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Peter S. Yoo, 1994. "Age dependent portfolio selection," Working Papers 1994-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
    10. Michael Magill, 2004. "Demography and the Stock Market," Theory workshop papers 658612000000000080, UCLA Department of Economics.
    11. Peter S. Yoo, 1994. "The baby boom and international capital flows," Working Papers 1994-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    13. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
    14. Oecd, 2004. "Ageing and Financial Markets," Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2004(1), pages 85-120.
    15. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "On the Path to Old-Age Poverty - Assessing the Impact of the Funded Riester Pension," IMK Report 73e-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "Auf dem Weg in die Altersarmut - Bilanz der Einführung der kapitalgedeckten Riester-Rente," IMK Report 73-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Maik Grabau & Heike Joebges, 2012. "Das hohe Risiko von Fremdwaehrungsanleihen," IMK Working Paper 92-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    2. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
    3. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "Demographics and asset returns: does the dynamics of population ageing matter?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 193-219, March.
    4. Motavasseli, Ali, 2016. "Essays in environmental policy and household economics," Other publications TiSEM b32e287e-169b-4e89-9878-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
    6. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2014. "The potential effect of US baby-boom retirees on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 106-121.
    7. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2006. "Can baby-boomers' retirement increase stock prices?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 284-299, May.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Richard Ochmann, 2015. "Do wealthier households save more? The impact of the demographic factor," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 163-173, June.
    9. Shaofeng Xu, 2013. "An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt," Staff Working Papers 13-9, Bank of Canada.
    10. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2003. "Demography and the Long Run Behavior of the Stock Market," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000269, David K. Levine.
    12. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
    13. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2007. "Demographics and Industry Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1667-1702, December.
    14. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    15. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Butler, Alexander W. & Yi, Hanyi, 2022. "Aging and public financing costs: Evidence from U.S. municipal bond markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    17. Manuel Ammann & Rachel Berchtold & Ralf Seiz, 2011. "Demographic Change and Pharmaceuticals' Stock Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 726-754, September.
    18. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    19. Iwaisako, Tokuo & 祝迫, 得夫 & Ono, Arito & Saito, Amane & Tokuda, Hidenobu, 2016. "Impact of population aging on household savings and portfolio choice in Japan," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 61, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    20. Elod Takats, 2010. "Ageing and asset prices," BIS Working Papers 318, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hbsarb:128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boeckde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.