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Bedroht die künftige demographische Entwicklung die Vermögenswerte kapitalgedeckter Altersversorgungssysteme? Auswertung des Standes der internationalen Forschung

Listed author(s):
  • Döring, Diether
  • Buth, Rainer
  • Rosengart, Anja Helena
Registered author(s):

    Die derzeitigen Altersvorsorgesysteme stehen durch die demographischen Entwicklungen in den meisten Industrieländern in absehbarer Zukunft vor gravierenden Problemen. Da die staatliche Alterssicherung keine adäquate Versorgung im Alter sicherstellt, muss zusätzlich eine Absicherung durch private bzw. betriebliche Vorsorge stattfinden. Es besteht eine stark verbreitete Sorge vieler Akteure, sowohl auf der Seite der Tarifpartner als auch in Unternehmen die betriebliche Altersversorgungssysteme betreiben, hinsichtlich der Renditeentwicklung vor dem Hintergrund der demographischen Entwicklung. Selbst in der interessierten Öffentlichkeit sind unter dem Schlagwort 'Asset-Meltdown' zum Teil dramatische Vorstellungen bezüglich eines Absinkens des Renditeniveaus in der Zeit starker Strukturveränderungen für die Periode nach 2010 vorhanden.Diese Studie untersucht den aktuellen Stand der Forschung zum sogenannten 'Demographie-Crash' anhand der Ergebnisse ausgewählter Forschungsergebnisse. Dabei werden zunächst die zukünftige demographische Entwicklung und die Auswirkungen auf gesellschaftliche, soziale und vor allem volkswirtschaftliche Faktoren dargestellt. In einem weiteren Schritt beschäftigt sich die Studie gezielt mit den verschiedenen Auswirkungen einer alternden Gesellschaft auf die Kapitalmärkte. Diese sind sehr komplex und hängen von verschiedensten Entwicklungen und Faktoren ab. Insbesondere wird die Gefahr eines 'Asset-Meltdown' beleuchtet. Unter diesem Begriff wird verstanden, dass die zahlenmäßig starke Baby-Boomer Generation ab 2010 in Rente geht und im Zuge dessen ihre Vermögensgegenstände zur Finanzierung ihres Lebensstandards an die zahlenmäßig schwächere jüngere Generation zu verkaufen versucht.

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    Paper provided by Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf in its series Arbeitspapiere with number 128.

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    Date of creation: 2007
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:hbsarb:128
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    1. James M. Poterba, 2004. "Impact of population aging on financial markets in developed countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 43-53.
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