IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/318.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ageing and asset prices

Author

Listed:
  • Elod Takats

Abstract

The paper investigates how ageing will affect asset prices. A small model is used to show that economic and demographic factors drive asset, and in particular house, prices. These factors are estimated in a panel regression framework encompassing BIS real house price data from 22 advanced economies between 1970 and 2009. The estimates show that demographic factors affect real house prices significantly. Combining the results with UN population projections suggests that ageing will lower real house prices substantially over the next forty years. The headwind is around 80 basis points per annum in the United States and much stronger in Europe and Japan. Based on the analysis, global asset prices are likely to face substantial headwinds from ageing.

Suggested Citation

  • Elod Takats, 2010. "Ageing and asset prices," BIS Working Papers 318, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work318.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work318.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    2. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January.
    3. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    4. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    5. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hendershott, Patric H., 1991. "Are real house prices likely to decline by 47 percent?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 553-563, December.
    7. John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2003. "Demography and the Long Run Behavior of the Stock Market," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000269, David K. Levine.
    8. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Christopher I. & Yaron, Amir, 2004. "Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 609-633, April.
    9. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    10. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
    11. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1493-1520, October.
    12. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Mr. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 2006/009, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Oecd, 2004. "Ageing and Financial Markets," Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2004(1), pages 85-120.
    15. Fang Yang, 2009. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: How Different is Housing?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 423-443, July.
    16. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    17. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    18. Robin Brooks, 2004. "The Equity Premium and the Baby Boom," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 155, Econometric Society.
    19. Peter S. Yoo, 1997. "Population growth and asset prices," Working Papers 1997-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Michael Magill, 2004. "Demography and the Stock Market," Theory workshop papers 658612000000000080, UCLA Department of Economics.
    21. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 589-595, November.
    22. Luci Ellis, 2010. "The Housing Meltdown: Why Did It Happen in the United States?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 13(3), pages 351-394.
    23. Robin Brooks, 2006. "Demographic Change and Asset Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gevorgyan, Kristine, 2019. "Do demographic changes affect house prices?," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 305-320, December.
    2. Ye Jin Heo, 2018. "Population aging and housing prices: who are we calling old?," NBP Working Papers 288, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Benoit Mojon & Xavier Ragot, 2020. "Can an ageing workforce explain low inflation?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 73-79, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ronny Mazzocchi, 2013. "Monetary Policy when the NAIRI is unknown: The Fed and the Great Deviation," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/16, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Thammarak Moenjak & Kengjai Watjanapukka & Oramone Chantapant & Teeravit Pobsukhirun, 2010. "New Globalization: Risks and Opportunities for Thailand in the Next Decade," Working Papers 2010-04, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    6. David A. Dodge & Richard Dion, 2011. "Chronic Healthcare Spending Disease: A Macro Diagnosis and Prognosis," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 327, April.
    7. July Radev, 2017. "Monetary policy and the dynamic disequilibrium," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 96-114.
    8. Bo Malmberg, 2012. "Fertility Cycles, Age Structure and Housing Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 467-482, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
    2. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and asset prices," Papers 07-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    4. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1493-1520, October.
    5. Shaofeng Xu, 2013. "An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt," Staff Working Papers 13-9, Bank of Canada.
    6. Mann, Katja & Davenport, Margaret, 2016. "Demography, Capital Flows and Asset Allocation over the Life-cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145948, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    8. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
    9. Döring, Diether & Buth, Rainer & Rosengart, Anja Helena, 2007. "Bedroht die künftige demographische Entwicklung die Vermögenswerte kapitalgedeckter Altersversorgungssysteme? Auswertung des Standes der internationalen Forschung," Arbeitspapiere 128, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    10. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
    11. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "Demographics and asset returns: does the dynamics of population ageing matter?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 193-219, March.
    12. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2010. "Old Europe Ages: Reforms and Reform Backlashes," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 169-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    15. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    17. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    18. Yasmine Essafi & Raphaël Languillon & Arnaud Simon, 2017. "The Relation between Aging and Housing Prices A Key Indicator for the French Spatial Wealth Reshaping [La relation Vieillissement-Prix immobiliers : un indicateur clé pour la réorganisation spatial," Working Papers halshs-01654445, HAL.
    19. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Richard Ochmann, 2015. "Do wealthier households save more? The impact of the demographic factor," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 163-173, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ageing; asset prices; house prices;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.