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Ageing and asset prices

  • Elod Takats

The paper investigates how ageing will affect asset prices. A small model is used to show that economic and demographic factors drive asset, and in particular house, prices. These factors are estimated in a panel regression framework encompassing BIS real house price data from 22 advanced economies between 1970 and 2009. The estimates show that demographic factors affect real house prices significantly. Combining the results with UN population projections suggests that ageing will lower real house prices substantially over the next forty years. The headwind is around 80 basis points per annum in the United States and much stronger in Europe and Japan. Based on the analysis, global asset prices are likely to face substantial headwinds from ageing.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 318.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:318
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  1. Luci Ellis, 2008. "The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?," BIS Working Papers 259, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2003. "Demography and the Long Run Behavior of the Stock Market," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000269, David K. Levine.
  3. Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  4. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Consumption and Risk Sharing Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2003. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," NBER Working Papers 9677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 123, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
  9. Robin Brooks, 2004. "The Equity Premium and the Baby Boom," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 155, Econometric Society.
  10. Fang Yang, 2009. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: How Different is Housing?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 423-443, July.
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