Are Real House Prices Likely to Decline by 47 Percent?
Mankiw and Weil have estimated a demographically-driven real house price equation on annual data from the 1947-87 period and used it to forecast real house prices over the 1988-2007 period. The result is their infamous 47 percent real decline. Their equation really only fits data from the 1950s and 1960s. Not only is the post 1970 fit poor, but the cumulative in-sample forecast for the 1970-87 period is off by a factor of four. While real house prices seem more likely to decline than increase over the next two decades, the most likely decline is 10 to 15 percent, not 47 percent.
|Date of creation:||Oct 1991|
|Publication status:||published as Regional Science and Urban Economics, January 1992, pp. 553-563|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haurin, Donald R. & Lee, Kyubang, 1989. "A structural model of the demand for owner-occupied housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 348-360, November.
- Henderson, J. Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1989. "Dynamic aspects of consumer decisions in housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 212-230, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3880. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.