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Aging and house prices

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  • Takáts, Előd

Abstract

The paper investigates how aging will affect house prices. It uses for the first time a house price dataset covering 22 advanced economies. The analysis finds that demography did and will affect real house prices significantly. The results suggest that a major shift is taking place. In the past 40years, on average demography increased advanced economy real house prices by around 30 basis points per annum, while in the next 40years aging will decrease them on average by around 80 basis points per annum compared to neutral demographics. The shift from demographic tailwinds to headwinds might also be relevant when thinking about financial asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:21:y:2012:i:2:p:131-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2012.04.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. L'impact de la démographie sur le prix des actifs
      by bertrandachou@orange.fr (Bertrand Achou) in BS Initiative on 2013-12-19 10:43:28

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mizuta, Takeshi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2016. "How Inheritance Affects the Real Estate Market in an Aging Economy : Evidence from Transaction and Registry Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 62, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Mizuta, Takeshi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2016. "How Inheritance Affects the Real Estate Market in an Aging Economy: Evidence from Transaction and Registry Data," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP16-3, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2012. "Detecting Real Estate Bubbles: A New Approach Based on the Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Property Prices," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 006, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
    4. Kim, Kyung-Hwan & Park, Miseon, 2016. "Housing Policy in the Republic of Korea," ADBI Working Papers 570, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    6. Kyung-Hwan Kim & Miseon Park, 2016. "Housing Policy in the Republic of Korea," Working Papers id:10751, eSocialSciences.
    7. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Tamai, Yoshihiro & Shimizu, Chihiro & Nishimura, Kiyohiko G., 2017. "Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very Long Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 65, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; House prices; Asset prices;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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