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Aging and house prices

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  • Takáts, Előd

Abstract

The paper investigates how aging will affect house prices. It uses for the first time a house price dataset covering 22 advanced economies. The analysis finds that demography did and will affect real house prices significantly. The results suggest that a major shift is taking place. In the past 40years, on average demography increased advanced economy real house prices by around 30 basis points per annum, while in the next 40years aging will decrease them on average by around 80 basis points per annum compared to neutral demographics. The shift from demographic tailwinds to headwinds might also be relevant when thinking about financial asset prices.

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  • Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:21:y:2012:i:2:p:131-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2012.04.001
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. L'impact de la démographie sur le prix des actifs
      by bertrandachou@orange.fr (Bertrand Achou) in BS Initiative on 2013-12-19 10:43:28

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    3. Chihiro Shimizu & Yongheng Deng & Tomoo Inoue & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2024. "Demographics Outlook, Credit Conditions, and Property Prices," Working Papers e198, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    4. Singh, Bhupal, 2023. "Housing prices and macroprudential policies: Evidence from microdata," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    5. Kim, Kyung-Hwan & Park, Miseon, 2016. "Housing Policy in the Republic of Korea," ADBI Working Papers 570, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Tamai, Yoshihiro & Shimizu, Chihiro & Nishimura, Kiyohiko G., 2017. "Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very Long Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 65, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Mizuta, Takeshi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Uesugi, Iichiro & 植杉, 威一郎, 2016. "How Inheritance Affects the Real Estate Market in an Aging Economy: Evidence from Transaction and Registry Data," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP16-3, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2019. "House Price Dispersion in Boom-Bust Cycles: Evidence from Tokyo," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 008, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Yihua Wang & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2022. "The relationship between demographic change and house price: Chinese evidence," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-65, February.
    10. Nicholas Apergis, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Housing Prices: Fresh Evidence from a Global Country Sample," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 815-836.
    11. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2019. "House Price Dispersion in Boom-Bust Cycles: Evidence from Tokyo," CARF F-Series CARF-F-461, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    13. Fathali Firoozi & Abolhassan Jalilvand & Donald Lien & Mikiko Oliver, 2020. "The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Prices: A Comparative Study of Singapore and the U.S," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(4), pages 467-482.
    14. Nicholas Apergis, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Housing Prices: Fresh Evidence from a Global Country Sample," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 189-210.
    15. Kyung-Hwan Kim & Miseon Park, 2016. "Housing Policy in the Republic of Korea," Working Papers id:10751, eSocialSciences.
    16. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; House prices; Asset prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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