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Boomer retirement: headwinds for U.S. equity markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng Liu
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

Historical data indicate a strong relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance. A key demographic trend is the aging of the baby boom generation. As they reach retirement age, they are likely to shift from buying stocks to selling their equity holdings to finance retirement. Statistical models suggest that this shift could be a factor holding down equity valuations over the next two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Boomer retirement: headwinds for U.S. equity markets?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug22.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:aug22:n:2011-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    2. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
    3. Lansing, Kevin, 2005. "Inflation-Induced Valuation Errors in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 13, pages 124-126.
    4. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. James M. Poterba, 2014. "Retirement Security in an Aging Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 1-30, May.
    2. Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
    3. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2014. "The potential effect of US baby-boom retirees on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 106-121.
    4. Hiroshi Fujiki & Naohisa Hirakata & Etsuro Shioji, 2012. "Aging and Household Stockholdings: Evidence from Japanese Household Survey Data," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier.
    6. James M. Poterba, 2014. "Retirement Security in an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 19930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Barslund, Mikkel & Ludolph, Lars, 2017. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," CEPS Papers 12598, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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