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Boomer retirement: headwinds for U.S. equity markets?

  • Zheng Liu
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Historical data indicate a strong relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance. A key demographic trend is the aging of the baby boom generation. As they reach retirement age, they are likely to shift from buying stocks to selling their equity holdings to finance retirement. Statistical models suggest that this shift could be a factor holding down equity valuations over the next two decades.

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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-26.pdf
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): aug22 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:aug22:n:2011-26
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  1. Ludwig, Alexander & Krüger, Dirk, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-11, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
  3. Lansing, Kevin, 2005. "Inflation-Induced Valuation Errors in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 13, pages 124-126.
  4. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
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