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Individual Annuity Demand Under Aggregate Mortality Risk

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  • Roman N. Schulze
  • Thomas Post

Abstract

Aggregate mortality risk—the risk that the mortality trend in a population changes in a nondeterministic way—and its implications for corporate decisions has recently been the subject of lively scientific discussion. We show that aggregate mortality risk is also a key determinant for individual annuitization decisions. Aggregate mortality risk appears to be a risk very difficult to transfer for individuals. Whether its existence leads to a higher or lower annuity demand depends on objective factors (e.g., insurers’ vulnerability to aggregate mortality changes). Subjective factors (i.e., individuals’ preferences) determine only the intensity of the annuity demand reaction to aggregate mortality risk. Our results are of significant importance not only for financial planning approaches of individual annuity buyers but also for strategic decisions in insurance companies and for solvency regulators. Furthermore, consideration of aggregate mortality risk may alleviate, but also intensify, the annuity puzzle.

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  • Roman N. Schulze & Thomas Post, 2010. "Individual Annuity Demand Under Aggregate Mortality Risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 423-449, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:77:y:2010:i:2:p:423-449
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01340.x
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    3. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    4. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Hanewald, Katja & Piggott, John & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Individual post-retirement longevity risk management under systematic mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 87-97.
    6. Thomas Post, 2009. "Individual Welfare Gains from Deferred Life-Annuities under Stochastic Lee-Carter Mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    7. Post Thomas, 2012. "Individual Welfare Gains from Deferred Life-Annuities under Stochastic Mortality," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, June.
    8. H. Huang & M. A. Milevsky & T. S. Salisbury, 2014. "Valuation and Hedging of the Ruin-Contingent Life Annuity (RCLA)," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(2), pages 367-395, June.
    9. Qi Ming, 2013. "The Impact of Mortality Risk on the Asset and Liability Management of Insurance Companies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 81-104, July.
    10. Torben M. Andersen & Marias H. Gestsson, 2021. "Annuitization and aggregate mortality risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 79-99, March.
    11. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.

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