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Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior

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  • Thomas Post

    () (School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University)

  • Katja Hanewald

    () (School of Risk and Actuarial Studies and ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales)

Abstract

Theoretical studies suggest that unexpected changes in future survival probabilities, that is, longevity risk, are important determinants of individuals' decision making about consumption, saving, allocation of assets, and retirement timing. Based on a data set that matches subjective survival expectations and savings indicators from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with life table data from the Human Mortality Database this study provides first empirical evidence that individuals are aware of longevity risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  • Handle: RePEc:asb:wpaper:201111
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    Cited by:

    1. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    2. Spaenjers, Christophe & Spira, Sven Michael, 2015. "Subjective life horizon and portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 94-106.
    3. David R. Rappange & Werner B. F. Brouwer & Job van Exel, 2016. "A long life in good health: subjective expectations regarding length and future health-related quality of life," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(5), pages 577-589, June.
    4. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    5. Francesco C. Billari & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Saita, 2017. "Nudging financial and demographic literacy: experimental evidence from an Italian Trade Union Pension Fund," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1767, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. David R. Rappange & Job van Exel & Werner B. F. Brouwer, 2017. "A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(1), pages 7-12, January.
    7. Timothy Riffe & Pil H. Chung & Jeroen Spijker & John MacInnes, 2015. "Time-to-death patterns in markers of age and dependency," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Federica Teppa & Susan Thorp & Hazel Bateman, 2015. "Family, friends and framing: A cross-country study of subjective survival expectations," DNB Working Papers 491, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    longevity risk; subjective survival expectations; forecast dispersion; saving behavior;

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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