The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
Although expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50% greater at baseline than those who died. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002
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Volume (Year): 112 (2002)
Issue (Month): 482 (October)
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2, September.
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