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Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts

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  • Vuchelen, Jef

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  • Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:25:y:2004:i:4:p:493-506
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    2. Parigi, Giuseppe & Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1997. "Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 197-209, June.
    3. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    4. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
    5. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. F. Thomas Juster & Paul Wachtel, 1972. "Inflation and the Consumer," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 71-122.
    7. Garner, C. Alan, 1981. "Economic determinants of consumer sentiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 205-220, June.
    8. Praet, Peter, 1985. "Endogenizing consumers' expectations in four major EC countries," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-269, September.
    9. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
    10. C. Alan Garner, 1991. "Forecasting consumer spending: should economists pay attention to consumer confidence surveys?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue May, pages 57-71.
    11. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1397-1408.
    12. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
    13. Maria Ward Otoo, 1999. "Consumer sentiment and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Praet, Peter & Vuchelen, Jozef, 1984. "The contribution of E.C. consumer surveys in forecasting consumer expenditures: An econometric analysis for four major countries," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 101-124, June.
    15. Martha Starr-McCluer, 1999. "The measurement of consumer expectations using survey data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Djerf, Kari & Takala, Kari, 1997. "Macroeconomy and consumer sentiment : performance of the finnish consumer barometer after ten years," Research Discussion Papers 20/1997, Bank of Finland.
    17. Rich, Robert W & Butler, J S, 1998. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 411-419, August.
    18. van Raaij, W. Fred, 1989. "Economic news, expectations and macro-economic behaviour," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 473-493.
    19. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
    20. Fan, Chengze Simon & Wong, Phoebe, 1998. "Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?: The Hong Kong case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 77-84, January.
    21. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
    22. Praet, Peter & Vuchelen, Jef, 1989. "The contribution of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting the effects of oil prices on private consumption," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 393-397.
    23. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    24. Saul H. Hymans, 1970. "Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(2), pages 173-206.
    25. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
    26. Kamakura, Wagner A. & Gessner, Guy, 1986. "Consumer sentiment and buying intentions revisited: a comparison of predictive usefulness," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-220, June.
    27. Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December.
    28. Van Raaij, W. Fred & Gianotten, Henk J., 1990. "Consumer confidence, expenditure, saving, and credit," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 269-290, June.
    29. Adrian W. Throop, 1992. "Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 35-59.
    30. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-392, August.
    31. Abeele, P. Vanden, 1983. "The index of consumer sentiment: Predictability and predictive power in the EEC," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
    2. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
    3. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Determinants of Consumer Sentiment Over Business Cycles: Evidence from the US Surveys of Consumers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), pages 187-215.
    5. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
    6. Hollanders, D.A. & Vliegenthart, R., 2009. "The Influence of Negative Newspaper Coverage on Consumer Confidence : The Dutch Case," Discussion Paper 2009-55, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, pages 200-220.
    8. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Piotr Białowolski, 2015. "Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 281-302, August.
    10. Hollanders, D.A., 2012. "The effect of aging on pensions," Other publications TiSEM 9ad52612-7171-4f89-9cb0-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Croce, Roberto M. & Haurin, Donald R., 2009. "Predicting turning points in the housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 281-293, December.
    12. Hollanders, David & Vliegenthart, Rens, 2011. "The influence of negative newspaper coverage on consumer confidence: The Dutch case," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 367-373, June.
    13. Kamini Solanki & Yudhvir Seetharam, 2014. "Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 8(3), September.
    14. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:55:y:2017:i:c:p:35-46 is not listed on IDEAS

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