Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race
This article is the first formal investigation of consumer attitudes that compares the forecasting power of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. The authors find that measures available from the Conference Board have both economically and statistically significant explanatory power for several categories of consumer spending. By contrast, measures available from the University of Michigan generally exhibit weaker forecasting power for most categories of spending. As part of their analysis, the authors examine the ways in which the surveys underlying these measures differ and test whether certain types of survey questions are particularly important for predicting consumer spending.
Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): Jun ()
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- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
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Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
93-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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- Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425.
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