IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/19818.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Dudek, Sławomir

Abstract

The main aim of the paper is an investigation whether consumer tendency survey (CTS) data can be useful for short-term forecasting of real private consumption expenditures in Poland. A consumer sentiment index and as well balances for individual questions (from consumer survey conducted by Research Institute for Economic Development of Warsaw School of Economics – RIED WSE) were used in the paper. This is one of the first attempts to model private consumption using RIED consumer survey data or even generally any consumer survey data in Poland. The data are quarterly and covers the 1996-2007 period. An investigation of predictive relationship between CTS results and real private consumption was done by using in-sample and out-of-sample approach. Under the first one unconditional and conditional causality analysis was performed. Unconditional approach is a standard bivariate Granger causality test, where appropriate pairs of variables were tested: real private consumption expenditures and particular CTS indicators. In the case of conditional Granger causality test aside from consumer survey results other macro variables were used, i.e.: lagged dependent variable, real gross disposable income of households, net financial assets of households, retail sales and wage-pension fund. It was realized by doing redundancy tests for survey indices in ARMAX equation specified for consumption expenditures and other variables mentioned above. The research is also extended by assessing whether this predictive in-sample conditional relationship has changed over time by running a series of recursive regressions and doing tests outlined above. The out-of-sample analysis focused on testing recursive one-step forecast errors of restricted (without CTS variables) and unrestricted ARMAX models.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19818
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19818/1/MPRA_paper_19818.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parigi, Giuseppe & Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1997. "Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 197-209, June.
    2. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    3. Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "Consumer attitudes: king for a day," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-15.
    4. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. repec:nsr:niesrd:304 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    7. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    8. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
    9. Bierens, Herman J., 1987. "Armax model specification testing, with an application to unemployment in the Netherlands," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 161-190, May.
    10. John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989. "Why is Consumption So Smooth?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
    11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    12. Djerf, Kari & Takala, Kari, 1997. "Macroeconomy and consumer sentiment : performance of the Finnish consumer barometer after ten years," Research Discussion Papers 20/1997, Bank of Finland.
    13. Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, "undated". "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review y:1998:i:jun:p:59-78:n:v., Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Fan, Chengze Simon & Wong, Phoebe, 1998. "Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?: The Hong Kong case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 77-84, January.
    16. Ali Al‐Eyd & Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2009. "Consumer Confidence Indices And Short‐Term Forecasting Of Consumption," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 96-111, January.
    17. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
    18. Andy C. C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2004. "Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 136-144, July.
    19. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    21. N.J. Nahuis, 2000. "Are Survey Indicators Useful for Monitoring Consumption Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MEB Series (discontinued) 2000-8, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    22. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    23. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper series 42_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    24. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Staff Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
    25. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
    26. Marco Malgarini & Patrizia Margani, 2005. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis," ISAE Working Papers 58, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    27. WDA Bryant & JE Macri, 2001. "Does Sentiment Explain Consumption?," Research Papers 0107, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.
    28. Martin Sommer, 2004. "Habits, Sentiment and Predictable Income in the Dynamics of Aggregate Consumption," Macroeconomics 0408004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    30. C. Alan Garner, 2002. "Consumer confidence after September 11," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 87(Q II).
    31. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    32. Jansen, W. Jos & Nahuis, Niek J., 2003. "The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 89-98, April.
    33. Loría, Eduardo & Brito, L., 2004. "Is the Consumer Confidence Index a Sound Predictor of the Private Demand in the United States?," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-15, Diciembre.
    34. W. Jos Jansen & Niek J. Nahuis, 2004. "Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 89-98.
    35. Sarah Gelper & Aurelie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11.
    36. C. Alan Garner, 1991. "Forecasting consumer spending: should economists pay attention to consumer confidence surveys?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 76(May), pages 57-71.
    37. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    38. Thomas A. Garrett & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2005. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Mar), pages 123-135.
    39. Maurizio Bovi, 2004. "Consumer Surveys and Reality," Macroeconomics 0408012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1988. "On the Information Content of Consumer Survey Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 140-144, February.
    41. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    42. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
    43. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
    44. Elliot W. Martin & Yash P. Mehra, 2003. "Why does consumer sentiment predict household spending?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 89(Fall), pages 51-67.
    45. Joanne Loundes & Rosanna Scutella, 2000. "Consumer Sentiment and Australian Consumer Spending," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    46. Khoon Lek Goh, 2003. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/22, New Zealand Treasury.
    47. Tatiana Fic & Marcin Kolasa & Adam Kot & Karol Murawski & Michal Rubaszek & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2005. "ECMOD Model of the Polish Economy," NBP Working Papers 36, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    48. BELTRAN, Helena & DURRE, Alain, 2003. "The determinants of consumer confidence: the case of United States and Belgium," CORE Discussion Papers 2003053, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    49. Gábor Vadas, 2001. "Beyond Macro Variables: Consumer Confidence Index and Household Expenditure in Hungary," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2001/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    50. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    51. Croushore, Dean, 2005. "Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 435-450, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ece Oral & Turknur Brand, 2014. "Consumer Tendency Survey of Turkey : A Disaggregated Analysis," Working Papers 1432, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption; consumer tendency survey; causality testing; comparing forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19818. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.