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Is the Consumer Confidence Index a Sound Predictor of the Private Demand in the United States?

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  • LORÍA, EDUARDO

    () (School of Economics, National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). Edificio Anexo, Tercer Piso, Club 305.Circuito Interior S/N, Ciudad Universitaria Del. Coyoacán, México, D.F. 04510.Tel.: +52 (55) 5622 2142.)

  • BRITO, L.

    () (Journal CIENCIA ergo sum, Autonomous University of the State of Mexico (UAEM). Av. V. Gómez Farías Nº. 200-2 Ote. Toluca, México, 50000. Tel.&Fax: +52 (722) 2137529.)

Abstract

The United States (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has been widely and unambiguously regarded as a good ‘predictor’ of the U.S.’s private investment and consumption. In order to demonstrate such with statistical rigor, co-integration and Granger causality tests were applied for 1978:Q1-2003:Q1. Two crucial results were obtained: a) co-integration was not found between CCI and investment and consumption, and b) CCI does not determine –in the Granger sense– either consumption or private investment. Conversely, we found causality from these two variables over CCI. El Índice de Confianza del Consumidor (CCI) de los Estados Unidos ha sido ampliamente, y sin ambigüedades, considerado como un buen pronosticador de la inversión y del consumo privados en ese país. Para comprobar esta afirmación, en este artículo se aplicaron con todo rigor estadístico las pruebas de cointegración y causalidad de Granger (1978:Q1-2003:Q1). Fueron obtenidos dos resultados cruciales: a) no se encontró cointegración entre CCI y el consumo y la inversión privados, y b) CCI no es causado –en el sentido de Granger– ni por el consumo ni por la inversión. Contrariamente, encontramos causalidad de estas dos variables sobre CCI.

Suggested Citation

  • Loría, Eduardo & Brito, L., 2004. "Is the Consumer Confidence Index a Sound Predictor of the Private Demand in the United States?," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-15, Diciembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:22_3_17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2011. "Consumer Confidence and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures in the United States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-18, February.
    2. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leading indicator; consumer confidence index; Granger causality test; unit root; structural change; co-integration.;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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