Is the Consumer Confidence Index a Sound Predictor of the Private Demand in the United States?
The United States (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has been widely and unambiguously regarded as a good ‘predictor’ of the U.S.’s private investment and consumption. In order to demonstrate such with statistical rigor, co-integration and Granger causality tests were applied for 1978:Q1-2003:Q1. Two crucial results were obtained: a) co-integration was not found between CCI and investment and consumption, and b) CCI does not determine –in the Granger sense– either consumption or private investment. Conversely, we found causality from these two variables over CCI. El Índice de Confianza del Consumidor (CCI) de los Estados Unidos ha sido ampliamente, y sin ambigüedades, considerado como un buen pronosticador de la inversión y del consumo privados en ese país. Para comprobar esta afirmación, en este artículo se aplicaron con todo rigor estadístico las pruebas de cointegración y causalidad de Granger (1978:Q1-2003:Q1). Fueron obtenidos dos resultados cruciales: a) no se encontró cointegración entre CCI y el consumo y la inversión privados, y b) CCI no es causado –en el sentido de Granger– ni por el consumo ni por la inversión. Contrariamente, encontramos causalidad de estas dos variables sobre CCI.
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Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
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