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Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

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  • Andy C.C. Kwan
  • John A. Cotsomitis

Abstract

This article examines the usefulness of various measures of consumer confidence in forecasting household spending in the United States. Using the reduced‐form equation of Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (American Economic Review 84:1397‐1408, 1994), we find that for the post‐World War II period, the Index of Consumer Expectations is incrementally more informative about household spending than the Index of Consumer Sentiment for all categories of consumption examined. A similar conclusion emerges when Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox's data set is used. Our overall results confirm the view that indices of consumer confidence reflect consumers' perception of future economic conditions. Also, the ability of these confidence indices to predict future consumption growth can be construed as a clear rejection of the random walk hypothesis of Hall (Journal of Political Economy 86:971‐87, 1978).
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Suggested Citation

  • Andy C.C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2003. "Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," Departmental Working Papers _156, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:chk:cuhked:_156
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    1. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:3:p:874-898 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Steven C. Bourassa & Donald R. Haurin, 2017. "A Dynamic Housing Affordability Index," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(3), pages 251-286.
    3. Yasemin Özerkek & Sadullah Çelik, 2010. "The Link between Government Spending, Consumer Confidence and Consumption Expenditures in Emerging Market Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 471-485, December.
    4. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ece Oral & Turknur Brand, 2014. "Consumer Tendency Survey of Turkey : A Disaggregated Analysis," Working Papers 1432, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Ahmet Yağmur Ersoy & Metin Saygılı & Mustafa İlteriş Yılmaz & Mustafa Emre Uslu & İhsan Hakan Selvi, 2022. "Consumer Sentiment in Turkey, from Closure to the New Normal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    7. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.
    8. Jacek Jankiewicz & Małgorzata Kokocińska, 2011. "Consumer Confidence Indexes in New EU Member States," Prace i Materiały, Instytut Rozwoju Gospodarczego (SGH), vol. 86(2), pages 161-183, January.
    9. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3 - Part ), pages 874-898.

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