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Regional Divergence and House Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Howard, Greg

    (U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Liebersohn, Jack

    (Ohio State U)

Abstract

This paper develops a model of the U.S. housing market that explains much of the time series of rents and house prices since World War II. House prices depend on expec- tations of future rents. We show that rents are tied to regional income inequality, and therefore, house prices are determined by how much faster incomes are growing in richer regions. This theory also matches many cross-sectional facts, including regional varia- tion in rents and prices, differing house price sensitivities to national trends, patterns of inter-state migration, and surveys of income expectations. An industry shift-share instrument provides causal evidence for our channel. The model implies that while interest rates have an ambiguous effect on house price levels, low rates increase house price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2020. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Working Paper Series 2020-04, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2020-04
    as

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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Micallef & Nathaniel Debono, 2020. "The rental sector and the housing block in STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2020, Central Bank of Malta.
    2. Isil Erol & Umut Unal, 2021. "Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia’s New Interstate Migration Capital," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    4. Xiaoping Zhou & Zhenyang Qin & Yingjie Zhang & Linyi Zhao & Yan Song, 2019. "Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-28, December.
    5. Cui, Liyuan & Hou, Yujuan & Yu, Huayi, 2025. "Does city-county consolidation lead to regional integration of the housing market? Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik & Aaron Smallwood, 2024. "Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply," Globalization Institute Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Jan K. Brueckner & David R. Agrawal, 2025. "Work-from-Home and Wage Convergence Across Cities: An Exploration," CESifo Working Paper Series 12150, CESifo.
    8. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2021. "The price–rent ratio inequality in Scottish Cities: fluctuations in discount rates and expected rent growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-15, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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