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Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets

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  • Knut Are Aastveit

  • Andr K. Anundsen

Abstract

The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends both on the nature of the shock expansionary versus contractionary and on city-specific housing supply elasticities. We test and find supporting evidence for the hypothesis that expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices when supply elasticities are low on 263 US metropolitan areas. We also test whether contractionary shocks are orthogonal to supply elasticities, as implied by downward rigidity of housing supply, and find supporting evidence. A final theoretical conjecture is that contractionary shocks should have a greater impact on house prices than expansionary shocks, as long as supply is not perfectly inelastic. For areas with high housing supply elasticity, our results are in line with this conjecture. However, for areas with an inelastic housing supply, we find that expansionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than contractionary shocks. We provide evidence that this is related to a momentum effect that is more pronounced when house prices are increasing than when they are falling.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Are Aastveit & Andr K. Anundsen, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets," Working Papers No 7/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anundsen, André Kallåk & Heebøll, Christian, 2013. "Supply Restrictions, Subprime Lending and Regional US Housing Prices," Memorandum 04/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    4. Elliot Anenberg, 2016. "Information Frictions And Housing Market Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1449-1479, November.
    5. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
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    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & André K. Anundsen, 2023. "Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1749-1783, October.
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Merike Kukk & Natalia Levenko, 2023. "Misalignments in house prices and economic growth in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3215-3237, June.
    3. Susan M. Wachter, 2018. "Credit risk transfer, informed markets, and securitization," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-3, pages 117-137.
    4. Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & Andr Anundsen, 2019. "Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms," Working Papers No 04/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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