Supply Restrictions, Subprime Lending and Regional US Housing Prices
This paper analyzes the recent boom-bust cycle in the US housing market from a regional perspective. Particular attention is paid to supply side restrictions and financial accelerator effects related to subprime lending. Considering 248 Metropolitan Statistical Areas across the entire US, we estimate a simultaneous boom-bust system for housing prices and supply. The model includes non-linear regional specific supply elasticities, determined by geographical and regulatory supply restrictions. In contrast to the predictions of a supply-demand framework, our results suggest that tighter supply restrictions lead to both a larger housing price boom and bust following a temporary increase in subprime lending. Extending the model to include a financial accelerator, our results indicate that supply restricted areas are significantly more exposed to this mechanism, which explains the greater housing price volatility in these areas over the course of a boom-bust cycle.
|Date of creation:||25 Jan 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway|
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Coughlin, Cletus C. & Lopez, David A., 2012. "The boom and bust of U.S. housing prices from various geographic perspectives," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 341-368.
- Wendell Cox, 2011. "Constraints on Housing Supply: Natural and Regulatory," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 8(1), pages 13-27, January.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2005.
"House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
- Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated".
1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008.
"Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
- Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2012.
"Residential land use regulation and the US housing price cycle between 2000 and 2009,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 93-99.
- Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2010. "Residential Land Use Regulation and the US Housing Price Cycle Between 2000 and 2009," Working Papers 2010-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2010.
- Haifang Huang & Yao Tang, 2011. "Dropping the Geographic-Constraints Variable Makes Only a Minor Difference: Reply to Cox," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 8(1), pages 28-32, January.
- Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003.
"House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
7, Royal Economic Society.
- Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
- Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Bank of England working papers 169, Bank of England.
- Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2008.
"Housing Busts and Household Mobility,"
NBER Working Papers
14310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Avery & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Glenn B. Canner, 2007. "Opportunities and Issues in Using HMDA Data," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(4), pages 351-380.
- Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
- LaCour-Little, Michael & Calhoun, Charles A. & Yu, Wei, 2011. "What role did piggyback lending play in the housing bubble and mortgage collapse?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 81-100, June.
- Coleman IV, Major & LaCour-Little, Michael & Vandell, Kerry D., 2008. "Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 272-290, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Magnus Gabriel Aase)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.