Supply Restrictions, Subprime Lending and Regional US Housing Prices
This paper analyzes the recent boom-bust cycle in the US housing market from a regional perspective. Particular attention is paid to supply side restrictions and financial accelerator effects related to subprime lending. Considering 248 Metropolitan Statistical Areas across the entire US, we estimate a simultaneous boom-bust system for housing prices and supply. The model includes non-linear regional specific supply elasticities, determined by geographical and regulatory supply restrictions. In contrast to the predictions of a supply-demand framework, our results suggest that tighter supply restrictions lead to both a larger housing price boom and bust following a temporary increase in subprime lending. Extending the model to include a financial accelerator, our results indicate that supply restricted areas are significantly more exposed to this mechanism, which explains the greater housing price volatility in these areas over the course of a boom-bust cycle.
|Date of creation:||25 Jan 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway|
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004.
"House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach,"
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
- Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Bank of England working papers 169, Bank of England.
- Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 7, Royal Economic Society.
- Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Coughlin, Cletus C. & Lopez, David A., 2012. "The boom and bust of U.S. housing prices from various geographic perspectives," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 341-368.
- Wendell Cox, 2011. "Constraints on Housing Supply: Natural and Regulatory," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 8(1), pages 13-27, January.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
- Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
- Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Housing busts and household mobility," Staff Reports 350, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Housing Busts and Household Mobility," NBER Working Papers 14310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated". "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ryo Kato, 2003. "Matlab code for Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles," QM&RBC Codes 113, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
- Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
- Glaeser, Edward & Saiz, Albert & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," Scholarly Articles 2962640, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2012. "Residential land use regulation and the US housing price cycle between 2000 and 2009," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 93-99.
- Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2010. "Residential Land Use Regulation and the US Housing Price Cycle Between 2000 and 2009," Working Papers 2010-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2010.
- Robert B. Avery & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Glenn B. Canner, 2007. "Opportunities and Issues in Using HMDA Data," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(4), pages 351-380.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
- Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
- LaCour-Little, Michael & Calhoun, Charles A. & Yu, Wei, 2011. "What role did piggyback lending play in the housing bubble and mortgage collapse?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 81-100, June.
- Robert B. Avery & Neil Bhutta & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Glenn B. Canner, 2010. "The 2009 HMDA data: the mortgage market in a time of low interest rates and economic distress," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue December, pages 39-77.
- Haifang Huang & Yao Tang, 2011. "Dropping the Geographic-Constraints Variable Makes Only a Minor Difference: Reply to Cox," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 8(1), pages 28-32, January.
- Coleman IV, Major & LaCour-Little, Michael & Vandell, Kerry D., 2008. "Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 272-290, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Magnus Gabriel Aase)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.