IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/0844.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms

Author

Listed:
  • Knut Are Aastveit

    (Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School)

  • Bruno Albuquerque

    (Bank of England)

  • André Anundsen

    (Housing Lab, Oslo Metropolitan University)

Abstract

Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996–2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have fallen markedly in recent years. Consistent with this, we find that monetary policy shocks have a stronger effect on house prices during the recent recovery than the previous boom. At the same time, building permits respond less. Finally, we find that housing supply elasticities have declined more in areas where land-use regulation has tightened the most, and in areas that experienced the sharpest housing busts.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & André Anundsen, 2020. "Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms," Bank of England working papers 844, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0844
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/changing-supply-elasticities-and-regional-housing-booms.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    3. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    4. Charles G. Nathanson & Eric Zwick, 2018. "Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply‐Side Speculation in the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2587-2633, December.
    5. Johannes Stroebel & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1391-1436.
    6. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2020. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2473-2502, November.
    7. Ganong, Peter & Shoag, Daniel, 2017. "Why has regional income convergence in the U.S. declined?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 76-90.
    8. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    9. Michelle W. Bowman, 2020. "The Outlook for Housing : A speech at the 2020 Economic Forecast Breakfast, Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri, January 16, 2020," Speech 87380, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 2024. "Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 29-61, April.
    11. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Enrico Moretti, 2019. "Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-39, April.
    12. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    14. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    15. Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-164, March.
    16. Jordan Rappaport, 2018. "Pent-Up Demand and Continuing Price Increases: The Outlook for Housing in 2018," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-5, January.
    17. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    18. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    19. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    20. Herkenhoff, Kyle F. & Ohanian, Lee E. & Prescott, Edward C., 2018. "Tarnishing the golden and empire states: Land-use restrictions and the U.S. economic slowdown," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 89-109.
    21. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    22. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    23. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 367-384, March.
    24. Anundsen, André Kallåk & Heebøll, Christian, 2016. "Supply restrictions, subprime lending and regional US house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 54-72.
    25. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    26. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    27. Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2012. "Residential land use regulation and the US housing price cycle between 2000 and 2009," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 93-99.
    28. Albouy, David & Ehrlich, Gabriel, 2018. "Housing productivity and the social cost of land-use restrictions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 101-120.
    29. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    30. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    31. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    32. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 2005. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 334-339, May.
    33. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2009. "The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 983-1028, December.
    34. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1567-1606.
    35. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    36. Andrew Haughwout & Richard W. Peach & John Sporn & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The Supply Side of the Housing Boom and Bust of the 2000s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 69-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    38. Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz & Anita Summers, 2008. "A New Measure of the Local Regulatory Environment for Housing Markets: The Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(3), pages 693-729, March.
    39. Edward Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2018. "The Economic Implications of Housing Supply," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-30, Winter.
    40. Arlene Wong, 2021. "Refinancing and The Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption," Working Papers 2021-57, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    41. Davidoff, Thomas, 2016. "Supply Constraints Are Not Valid Instrumental Variables for Home Prices Because They Are Correlated With Many Demand Factors," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 177-206, December.
    42. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
    43. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Heterogeneity in Neighborhood-Level Price Growth in the United States, 1993-2009," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 134-140, May.
    44. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-589, August.
    45. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    46. Edward E. Leamer, 2015. "Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 43-50, March.
    47. Aditya Aladangady, 2014. "Homeowner Balance Sheets and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-98, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Robert Buckley & John Ermisch, 1983. "Theory and Empiricism in The Econometric Modelling of House Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 20(1), pages 83-90, February.
    49. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 339-366.
    50. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    52. John C. Williams, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Housing Booms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 345-355, March.
    53. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Morales, Eduardo & Nathanson, Charles G., 2014. "Housing dynamics: An urban approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 45-56.
    54. Pope, Devin G. & Pope, Jaren C., 2012. "Crime and property values: Evidence from the 1990s crime drop," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 177-188.
    55. Thaler, Richard, 1978. "A note on the value of crime control: Evidence from the property market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 137-145, January.
    56. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    57. Adam M Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 669-707.
    58. Daniel I. García, 2019. "Second Home Buyers and the Housing Boom and Bust," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anthony W. Orlando & Christian L. Redfearn, 2024. "Houston, you have a problem: How large cities accommodate more housing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1045-1074, July.
    2. Gong, Yifan & Yao, Yuxi, 2022. "Demographic changes and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Monetary tightening in the Euro Area: Implications for residential investment," Papers WP767, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Tran, My & Gannon, Brenda & Rose, Christiern, 2023. "The effect of housing wealth on older adults’ health care utilization: Evidence from fluctuations in the U.S. housing market," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Kai Zhao, 2022. "Homelessness," Working papers 2022-17, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Albuquerque, Bruno & Iseringhausen, Martin & Opitz, Frederic, 2020. "Monetary policy and US housing expansions: The case of time-varying supply elasticities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Chi-Young Choi & Soojin Jo, 2020. "How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices? – Evidence from U.S. Cities," Globalization Institute Working Papers 398, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Battistini, Niccolò & Falagiarda, Matteo & Hackmann, Angelina & Roma, Moreno, 2025. "Navigating the housing channel of monetary policy across euro area regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    10. Guillaume Chapelle & J.B. Eyméoud & C. Wolf, 2023. "Land-use regulation and housing supply elasticity: evidence from France," THEMA Working Papers 2023-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    11. Maximilian Günnewig‐Mönert & Ronan C. Lyons, 2024. "Housing prices, costs, and policy: The housing supply equation in Ireland since 1970," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1075-1102, July.
    12. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    13. Bandoni, Emil & De Nora, Giorgia & Giuzio, Margherita & Ryan, Ellen & Storz, Manuela, 2025. "Institutional investors and house prices," Working Paper Series 3026, European Central Bank.
    14. Dreger, Christian & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2020. "The impact of credit for house price overvaluations in the euro area: Evidence from threshold models," MPRA Paper 99523, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & André K. Anundsen, 2023. "Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1749-1783, October.
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    3. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    4. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.
    5. Bahaj, Saleem Abubakr & Foulis, Angus & Pinter, Gabor & Surico, Paolo, 2018. "Employment and the collateral channel of monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100934, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. G.C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2018. "Interest Rates, Local Housing Markets and House Price Over†reactions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 33-48, June.
    8. Oikarinen, Elias & Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Engblom, Janne, 2018. "U.S. metropolitan house price dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 54-69.
    9. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    10. Maximilian Günnewig‐Mönert & Ronan C. Lyons, 2024. "Housing prices, costs, and policy: The housing supply equation in Ireland since 1970," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1075-1102, July.
    11. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Petra Staufer‐Steinnocher, 2021. "The Dynamic Impact of Monetary Policy on Regional Housing Prices in the United States," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1039-1068, December.
    12. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    13. Albuquerque, Bruno & Iseringhausen, Martin & Opitz, Frederic, 2020. "Monetary policy and US housing expansions: The case of time-varying supply elasticities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    14. Anundsen, André Kallåk & Heebøll, Christian, 2016. "Supply restrictions, subprime lending and regional US house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 54-72.
    15. Margaris, Aristotelis, 2024. "Monetary policy and house price heterogeneity: Evidence from the U.K," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    16. Parkhomenko, Andrii, 2023. "Local causes and aggregate implications of land use regulation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Choi, Chi-Young & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2021. "From banking integration to housing market integration - Evidence from the comovement of U.S. Metropolitan House Prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2019. "Immobilienpreise und Immobilienzyklen und die Rolle von Angebotsbeschränkungen [The impact of local supply constraints on house prices and price dynamics]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 37-65, November.
    19. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Mathias Klein, 2024. "The Fiscal Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2024-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    20. Priit Jeenas, 2023. "Firm Balance Sheet Liquidity, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Investment Dynamics," Working Papers 1409, Barcelona School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; heterogeneity; housing supply elasticities; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0844. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.