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Supply restrictions, subprime lending and regional US house prices

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Abstract

With regard to the recent US house price cycle, we analyze how the interaction between housing supply restrictions, mortgage credit constraints and a price-to-price feedback loop affects house price volatility. Considering 247 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, we estimate a simultaneous boom-bust system for house prices, housing supply and subprime lending. The model accounts for regional differences in supply elasticities that are determined by local variations in topographical and regulatory supply restrictions. Our results suggest that tighter supply restrictions lead to both a larger house price boom and bust, and that this is due to supply restricted areas being signi cantly more exposed to a financial accelerator effect and a price-to-price expectation mechanism. We further find that the presence of endogenous price acceleration mechanisms contribute to dilute the positive relationship between the total quantity response and the supply elasticity.

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  • André Kallåk Anundsen & Christian Heebøll, 2014. "Supply restrictions, subprime lending and regional US house prices," Working Paper 2014/18, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2014_18
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    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2014/201418/
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    Cited by:

    1. Brausewetter, Lars & Thomsen, Stephan L. & Trunzer, Johannes, 2022. "Explaining regional disparities in housing prices across German districts," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & André K. Anundsen, 2023. "Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1749-1783, October.
    3. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    4. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Regime switching and the responsiveness of prices to supply: The case of the Irish housing market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 82-94.
    5. Büchler, Simon & Götze, Vera & Hauck, Lukas & Stalder, Nicola, 2025. "The amplifying effect of spatial planning restrictions on house prices and rents," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Anundsen, André Kallåk & Heebøll, Christian, 2016. "Supply restrictions, subprime lending and regional US house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 54-72.
    7. Ms. Nan Geng, 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/164, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Shengguo Li & Jiaqi Liu & Jichang Dong & Xuerong Li, 2021. "20 Years of Research on Real Estate Bubbles, Risk and Exuberance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    9. Bahar Öztürk & Dorinth van Dijk & Frank van Hoenselaar & Sander Burgers, 2018. "The relation between supply constraints and house price dynamics in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 601, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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