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Investment Hangover and the Great Recession

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  • Matthew Rognlie
  • Andrei Shleifer
  • Alp Simsek

Abstract

We present a model of investment hangover motivated by the Great Recession. In our model, overbuilding of residential capital requires a reallocation of productive resources to nonresidential sectors, which is facilitated by a reduction in the real interest rate. If the fall in the interest rate is limited by the zero lower bound and nominal rigidities, then the economy enters a liquidity trap with limited reallocation and low output. The drop in output reduces nonresidential investment through a mechanism similar to the acceleration principle of investment. The burst in nonresidential investment is followed by an even greater boom due to low interest rates during the liquidity trap. The boom in nonresidential investment induces a partial and asymmetric recovery in which the residential sector is left behind, consistent with the broad trends of the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2014. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 20569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20569
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    Cited by:

    1. Toan Phan & Andrew Hanson & Siddhartha Biswas, 2018. "Bubbly Recessions," 2018 Meeting Papers 440, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. David Berger & Nicholas Turner & Eric Zwick, 2016. "Stimulating Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 22903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2018. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 199-227, February.
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    5. Biswas, Siddhartha & Hanson, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Bubbly Recessions," Working Paper 18-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Mathieu Boullot, 2017. "Secular Stagnation, Liquidity Trap and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," Working Papers halshs-01295012, HAL.
    7. David P. Glancy, 2017. "Housing Bust, Bank Lending & Employment : Evidence from Multimarket Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-118, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1427 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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