The Making Of A Great Contraction With A Liquidity Trap and A Jobless Recovery
The great contraction of 2008 pushed the U.S. economy into a protracted liquidity trap (i.e., a long period with zero nominal interest rates and inflationary expectations below target). In addition, the recovery was jobless (i.e., output growth recovered but unemployment lingered). This paper presents a model that captures these three facts. The key elements of the model are downward nominal wage rigidity, a Taylor-type interest-rate feedback rule, the zero bound on nominal rates, and a confidence shock. Lack-of-confidence shocks play a central role in generating jobless recoveries, for fundamental shocks, such as disturbances to the natural rate, are shown to generate recessions featuring recoveries with job growth. The paper considers a monetary policy that can lift the economy out of the slump. Specifically, it shows that raising the nominal interest rate to its intended target for an extended period of time, rather than exacerbating the recession as conventional wisdom would have it, can boost inflationary expectations and thereby foster employment.
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- Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014.
"Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
- Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Calvo, Guillermo & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ottonello, Pablo, 2012. "The Labor Market Consequences of Financial Crises With or Without Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alessandro Barattieri & Susanto Basu & Peter Gottschalk, 2014. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 70-101, January.
- Alessandro Barattieri & Susanto Basu & Peter Gottschalk, 2010. "Some evidence on the importance of sticky wages," Working Papers 10-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Barattieri, Alessandro & Basu, Susanto & Gottschalk, Peter T., 2010. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 5039, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Alessandro Barattieri & Susanto Basu & Peter Gottschalk, 2010. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 740, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Alessandro Barattieri & Susanto Basu & Peter Gottschalk, 2010. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages," NBER Working Papers 16130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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