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Stagnation traps

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Abstract

We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth trap. In a stagnation trap, the central bank is unable to restore full employment because weak growth depresses aggregate demand and pushes the interest rate against the zero lower bound, while growth is weak because low aggregate demand results in low profits, limiting firms' investment in innovation. Policies aiming at restoring growth can successfully lead the economy out of a stagnation trap, thus rationalizing the notion of job creating growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2015. "Stagnation traps," Economics Working Papers 1487, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1487
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert E. Hall, 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," NBER Working Papers 22230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," CEP Discussion Papers dp1389, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2017. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 23093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Michelis, Andrea De & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2016. "Raising an inflation target: The Japanese experience with Abenomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 67-87.
    7. Marco Luca Pinchetti, 2017. "Creative Destruction Cycles: Schumpeterian Growth in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-04, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Vladimir Asriyan & Luca Fornaro & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2016. "Monetary policy for a bubbly world," Economics Working Papers 1533, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Sanjay R. Singh & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 581-634, November.
    10. Tatiana Kirsanova & Charles Nolan & Maryam Shafiei Deh Abad, 2016. "Deep Recessions and Slow Recoveries," Working Papers 2016_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Jean-Baptiste Michau, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: Theory and Remedies," Working Papers hal-01211667, HAL.
    12. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2016. "Money and Capital in a Persistent Liquidity Trap," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 16.12, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    13. Ander Perez-Orive & Andrea Caggese, 2017. "Capital Misallocation and Secular Stagnation," 2017 Meeting Papers 382, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2131 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Capital accumulation and the dynamic of secular stagnation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular Stagnation; Liquidity Traps; Growth Traps; Endogenous Growth; Multiple Equilibria.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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