IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v122y2012i559p155-172.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits

Author

Listed:
  • Roger E. A. Farmer

Abstract

This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy that reformulates what I take to be two important ideas from Keynes General Theory. The first is that there may be a continuum of steady state unemployment rates. The second is that beliefs select an equilibrium. I argue that search and matching costs in the labor market lead to the existence of a continuum of equilibria and I resolve the resulting indeterminacy by assuming that the beliefs of stock market participants are self-fulfilling. The paper reconciles Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory without invoking the assumption of frictions that prevent wages and prices from reaching their equilibrium levels.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E. A. Farmer, 2012. "Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 155-172, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:122:y:2012:i:559:p:155-172
    DOI: j.1468-0297.2011.02474.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02474.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    2. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2012. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder And Solow Revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 149-166, April.
    4. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Julio J. Rotemberg & Lawrence H. Summers, 1985. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(1), pages 225-251.
    6. Paolo Gelain & Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "A DSGE Model from the Old Keynesian Economics: An Empirical Investigation," CDMA Working Paper Series 201014, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    7. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
    8. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2008. "Aggregate demand and supply," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 77-93.
    9. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901.
    10. Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1988. "Pareto Inefficiency of Market Economies: Search and Efficiency Wage Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 351-355, May.
    11. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1984. "Search Intensity, Job Advertising, and Efficiency," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 128-143, January.
    12. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2010. "How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 557-572, July.
    13. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    14. Alvin H. Hansen, 1936. "Mr. Keynes on Underemployment Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44, pages 667-667.
    15. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "Stochastic Dynamics and Matching in the Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale for the Shimer's Puzzle," Discussion Papers 2010/95, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    17. Farmer, Roger E A, 2005. "Shooting the Auctioneer," CEPR Discussion Papers 4825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Arthur J. Hosios, 1990. "On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 279-298.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Krugman to Farmer: "Show Me Your Trailer, or I Won't Watch Your Movie"
      by Stephen Williamson in Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics on 2013-08-19 02:51:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
    3. Duca, John V., 2013. "Did the commercial paper funding facility prevent a Great Depression style money market meltdown?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 747-758.
    4. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2016. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 177-198, October.
    5. Riccardo Magnani, 2015. "The Solow Growth Model Revisited. Introducing Keynesian Involuntary Unemployment," Working Papers hal-01203393, HAL.
    6. Masanori Kashiwagi, 2014. "Sunspots and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs in the U.S. Housing Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 654-676, October.
    7. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 317-340, May.
    8. Karl Farmer, 2013. "Financial Integration and EMU's External Imbalances in a Two-Country OLG Model," Graz Economics Papers 2013-07, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    9. Hollander, Hylton & Liu, Guangling, 2016. "The equity price channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions and banking," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 375-389.
    10. Duca, John V. & Murphy, Anthony, 2013. "Would a Bagehot style corporate bond backstop have helped counter the Great Recession?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 351-353.
    11. Fabio Fornari & Livio Stracca, 2012. "What does a financial shock do? First international evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 407-445, July.
    12. Ulrich van Suntum, "undated". "Economic Confidence, Negative Interest Rates, and Liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0," Working Papers 200108, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    13. Faruque, Muhammad U, 2011. "An empirical investigation of the arbitrage pricing theory in a frontier stock market: evidence from Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. van Suntum, Ulrich, 2009. "Economic confidence, negative interest rates, and liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0," CAWM Discussion Papers 24, University of Münster, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM).
    15. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2014: Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung - aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
    16. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2010. "How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 557-572, July.
    17. Karl Farmer, 2013. "EMU Imbalances in a Two-Country Overlapping Generations Model," EcoMod2013 5484, EcoMod.
    18. Riccardo Magnani, 2015. "The Solow Growth Model Revisited. Introducing Keynesian Involuntary Unemployment," CEPN Working Papers hal-01203393, HAL.
    19. Koppl, Roger, 2010. "Some epistemological implications of economic complexity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 859-872, December.
    20. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "How to Reduce Unemployment: Notes on Macro-Economic Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 2010/106, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    21. Marco Guerrazzi, 2012. "Expectations, Employment and Prices: A Suggested Interpretation of the New «Farmerian» Economics," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 369-395.
    22. Pyo, Dong-Jin, 2015. "Animal spirits and stock market dynamics," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005596, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    23. Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario, 2013. "Testing for multiple bubbles with daily data," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO-CIDSE 011028, UNIVERSIDAD DEL VALLE - CIDSE.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:122:y:2012:i:559:p:155-172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/resssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.