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Confidence Crashes and Animal Spirits

  • Roger E. A. Farmer

    (UCLA)

This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy that reformulates what I take to be two important ideas from Keynes General Theory. The first is that there may be a continuum of steady state unemployment rates. The second is that beliefs select an equilibrium. I argue that search and matching costs in the labor market lead to the existence of a continuum of equilibria and I resolve the resulting indeterminacy by assuming that the beliefs of stock market participants are self-fulfilling. The paper reconciles Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory without invoking the assumption of frictions that prevent wages and prices from reaching their equilibrium levels.

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File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2011/paper_603.pdf
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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 603.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:603
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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  1. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1987. "Costly Search and Recruiting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 89-107, February.
  2. Roger E. A. Farmer & Andrew Hollenhorst, 2006. "Shooting the Auctioneer," NBER Working Papers 12584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Farmer, Roger E A & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2011. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder and Solow Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 8189, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bruce Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Pareto Inefficiency of Market Economies: Search and Efficiency Wage Models," NBER Working Papers 2651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Working Papers 341, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  6. Hagedorn, Marcus & Manovskii, Iourii, 2008. "The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies revisited," Working Paper Series 0853, European Central Bank.
  7. Paolo Gelain & Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "A DSGE Model from the Old Keynesian Economics: An Empirical Investigation," CDMA Working Paper Series 201014, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Julio J. Rotemberg & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 0898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  10. Hosios, Arthur J, 1990. "On the Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 279-98, April.
  11. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2007. "Aggregate Demand and Supply," NBER Working Papers 13406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2010. "How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 557-572, July.
  13. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901, March.
  15. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  16. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "Stochastic Dynamics and Matching in the Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale for the Shimer's Puzzle," Discussion Papers 2010/95, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
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