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The Evolution of Endogenous Business Cycles

  • Farmer, Roger E A

This paper distinguishes between two kinds of Endogenous Business Cycle models, and discusses the evolution from first generation EBC1 models to second generation EBC2 models. I argue that EBC1 models, which display dynamic indeterminacy, are part of the evolution of modern macroeconomics that has classical roots dating back to the 1920s. EBC2 models, which display steady-state indeterminacy, are a more radical departure from the classical Real Business Cycle model; they represent a return to one of the most important ideas to emerge from Keynes’ (1936) General Theory; that high involuntary unemployment can persist as part of the steady-state equilibrium of a market economy.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9080.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9080
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  1. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2012. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder And Solow Revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 149-166, April.
  2. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2002. "Markups, gaps, and the welfare costs of business fluctuations," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0204, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  5. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1999. "Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption," Departmental Working Papers 199915, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  6. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2011. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  8. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
  9. Burnside, Craig, 1996. "Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 177-201, April.
  10. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," IDEI Working Papers 158, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  11. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
  12. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
  14. Roger Farmer, 2013. "The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 19391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  16. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  17. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Sentiments and aggregate demand fluctuations," Working Papers 2012-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Hall, Robert E, 1997. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S223-50, January.
  19. Roger Farmer, 2011. "Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 17137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "Pegs, Downward Wage Rigidity, and Unemployment: The Role of Financial Structure," NBER Working Papers 18223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Galí, Jordi & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2011. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Marco Guerrazzi, 2012. "The ‘Farmerian’ Approach to Ending a Finance-Induced Recession: Notes on Stability and Dynamics," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 41(1-2), pages 81-99, 02.
  23. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901, July.
  25. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-62, December.
  26. repec:oup:restud:v:49:y:1982:i:2:p:217-27 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2007. "Aggregate Demand and Supply," NBER Working Papers 13406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  29. Paolo Gelain & Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "A DSGE Model from the Old Keynesian Economics: An Empirical Investigation," CDMA Working Paper Series 201014, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  30. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  31. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  32. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
  33. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
  34. Marco Guerrazzi, 2011. "Search And Stochastic Dynamics In The Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale For The Shimer Puzzle," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 561-586, November.
  35. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, March.
  36. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1976. "Job Search and Participation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(169), pages 33-49, February.
  37. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  38. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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