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Animal Spirits in a Monetary Model

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  • Farmer, Roger E A
  • Platonov, Konstantin

Abstract

We integrate Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory in a new way. Our approach differs from the prevailing New Keynesian paradigm in two ways. First, our model displays steady state indeterminacy. This feature allows us to explain persistent unemployment which we model as movements among the steady state equilibria of our model. Second, our model displays dynamic indeterminacy. This feature allows us to explain the real effects of nominal shocks by selecting a dynamic equilibrium where prices are slow to respond to unanticipated money supply disturbances. Price rigidity arises as part of a rational expectations equilibrium in which the equilibrium is selected by beliefs. To close our model, we introduce a new fundamental that we refer to as the belief function.

Suggested Citation

  • Farmer, Roger E A & Platonov, Konstantin, 2016. "Animal Spirits in a Monetary Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 11197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2018. "Keynesian economics without the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 137-150.
    2. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2011. "Debt, deficits and finite horizons: The stochastic case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 47-49, April.
    3. Jess Benhabib & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 523-550, July.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
    5. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2016. "The Evolution Of Endogenous Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 544-557, March.
    6. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    7. Roger Farmer, 2012. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession," 2012 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2008. "Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 162-196, May.
    9. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2012. "Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 155-172, March.
    10. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2007. "Sticky Information in General Equilibrium," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 603-613, 04-05.
    11. Feng Dong & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2016. "Credit search and credit cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 215-239, February.
    12. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
    13. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    14. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2000. "Two New Keynesian Theories Of Sticky Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 74-107, March.
    15. Kenneth J. Matheny, 1998. "Non-neutral responses to money supply shocks when consumption and leisure are Pareto substitutes," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 11(2), pages 379-402.
    16. Farmer, Roger E A, 1991. "Sticky Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1369-1379, November.
    17. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2012. "The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 693-707.
    18. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2015. "The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 617-633, October.
    20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    21. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 317-340, May.
    22. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    23. Farmer, Roger E. A., 2014. "How the Economy Works: Confidence, Crashes and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199360307.
    24. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    25. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2002. "Why Does Data Reject the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 111-129.
    26. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1976. "Job Search and Participation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(169), pages 33-49, February.
    27. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    28. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901.
    29. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    30. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1984. "Search Intensity, Job Advertising, and Efficiency," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 128-143, January.
    31. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 2014. "Macroeconomics: Institutions, Instability, and the Financial System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199655793.
    32. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(4), pages 740-769, December.
    33. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    34. Dmitry Plotnikov, 2019. "Hysteresis in unemployment: A confidence channel," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 15(1), pages 109-127, March.
    35. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2016. "Prosperity for All: How to Prevent Financial Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190621438.
    36. Feng Dong & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2016. "Credit search and credit cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 215-239, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2018. "Keynesian economics without the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 137-150.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Roger E A Farmer & Giovanni Nicolo, 2019. "Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 505, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico
      [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]
      ," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
    6. Roger E A Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 507, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    7. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    8. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. repec:cpr:ceprdp:14338 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    animal spirits; belief function; Keynesian economics; Unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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