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The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession: Theory and Evidence

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  • Farmer, Roger E A

Abstract

This paper argues that the stock market crash of 2008, triggered by a collapse in house prices, caused the Great Recession. The paper has three parts. First, it provides evidence of a high correlation between the value of the stock market and the unemployment rate in U.S. data since 1929. Second, it compares a new model of the economy developed in recent papers and books by Farmer, with a classical model and with a textbook Keynesian approach. Third, it provides evidence that fiscal stimulus will not permanently restore full employment. In Farmer’s model, as in the Keynesian model, employment is demand determined. But aggregate demand depends on wealth, not on income.

Suggested Citation

  • Farmer, Roger E A, 2011. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 8617, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8617
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    3. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2011. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 262-278, April.
    4. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2012. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder And Solow Revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 149-166, April.
    6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
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    18. Roger E.A. Farmer (ed.), 2008. "Macroeconomics in the Small and the Large," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13236.
    19. Edmund S. Phelps, 1999. "Behind This Structural Boom: The Role of Asset Valuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 63-68, May.
    20. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
    21. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2010. "How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 557-572, July.
    22. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hollander, Hylton & Liu, Guangling, 2016. "Credit spread variability in the U.S. business cycle: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-52.
    2. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Lifang Xu, 2016. "Stock market bubbles and unemployment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 273-307, February.
    3. Dées, Stephane & Zimic, Srečko, 2019. "Animal spirits, fundamental factors and business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2016. "The Evolution Of Endogenous Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 544-557, March.
    5. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2015. "Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(2), pages 507-569.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, May.
    7. Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-88.
    8. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Platonov, Konstantin, 2019. "Animal spirits in a monetary model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 60-77.
    9. Choi, Sangyup & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Uncertainty and unemployment: The effects of aggregate and sectoral channels," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 344-358.
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Cl�ment Marsilli, 2013. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 233-237, February.
    11. Haifa Hammami & Younes Boujelbene, 2017. "Stock market crashes shocks and real economy in Tunisia," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 31-48.
    12. Marco Angrisani & Jinkook Lee, 2016. "Health Effects of Short‐Term Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Conditions: The Case of Hypertension for Older Americans," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 113-125, November.
    13. Kydland, Finn E. & Zarazaga, Carlos E.J.M., 2016. "Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 109-125.
    14. Ülkü, Numan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Kuzmicheva, Olga, 2017. "Stock market's response to real output shocks in Eastern European frontier markets: A VARwAL model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 140-154.
    15. Makoto Nakajima, 2013. "The diverse impacts of the great recession," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 17-29.
    16. Jackson, Kristoffer (Kip), 2018. "Regulation, land constraints, and California’s boom and bust," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 130-147.
    17. repec:pri:cepsud:234kaplan is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
    19. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 31 Jan 2017.
    20. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2018. "Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 34-43.
    21. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
    22. Cardullo, Gabriele & Guerci, Eric, 2019. "Interpreting the Beveridge curve. An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 84-100.
    23. Blau, Benjamin M., 2017. "Economic freedom and crashes in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 33-46.
    24. Bachmeier, Lance J. & Nadimi, Soheil R., 2018. "Oil shocks and stock return volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-9.
    25. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2016. "Do stock market trading activities forecast recessions?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 370-386.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market; unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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