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Shocks and Crashes

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  • Martin Lettau
  • Sydney C. Ludvigson

Abstract

Three shocks, distinguished by whether their effects are permanent or transitory, are identified to characterize the post-war dynamics of aggregate consumer spending, labor earnings, and household wealth. The first shock accounts for virtually all of the variation in consumption; we argue that it can be plausibly interpreted as a permanent total factor productivity shock. The second shock, which underlies the vast bulk of quarterly fluctuations in labor income growth, permanently reallocates rewards between shareholders and workers but leaves consumption unaffected. Over the last 25 years, the cumulative effect of this shock has persistently boosted stock market wealth and persistently lowered labor earnings. We call this a factors share shock. The third shock is a persistent but transitory innovation that accounts for the vast majority of quarterly fluctuations in asset values but has a negligible impact on consumption and labor earnings at all horizons. We call this an exogenous risk aversion shock. We show that the 2000-02 asset market crash and recession surrounding it was characterized by a negative transitory wealth (positive risk aversion) shock, predominantly affecting stock market wealth. By contrast, the 2007-09 crash and recession was characterized by a string of large negative productivity shocks, as well as positive risk aversion shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Shocks and Crashes," NBER Working Papers 16996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16996 Note: AP EFG ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim, 2017. "Negative Bubbles: What Happens After a Crash," NBER Working Papers 23830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hecq Alain & Victor Issler João, 2012. "A Common-Feature Approach for Testing Present-Value Restrictions with Financial Data," Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    3. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Christopher Polk, 2013. "Hard Times," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, pages 95-132.
      • John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Christopher Polk, 2010. "Hard Times," NBER Working Papers 16222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher, 2013. "Hard Times," Scholarly Articles 12172786, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Richard A. Ashley & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2013. "Sensitivity Analysis For Inference In 2SLS Estimation With Possibly-Flawes Instruments," Working Papers e07-38, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factor fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 64-79.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2015. "Stock return and cash flow predictability: The role of volatility risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 458-471.
    7. Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factor fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 64-79.
    8. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, pages 116-134.
    10. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Noah Stoffman, 2013. "Winners and Losers: Creative Destruction and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 18671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chen, Sichong, 2012. "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 284-304.
    12. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung & Otto, Glenn, 2012. "Structural cointegrated models of US consumption and wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 1111-1124.
    13. Roberto Marfè, 2015. "Income Insurance and the Equilibrium Term-Structure of Equity," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 407, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    14. Frank Schmid, 2013. "Wealth Effects on Consumption in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(I), pages 87-110, March.
    15. Richard A. Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "International Evidence On The Oil Price-Real Output Relationship: Does Persistence Matter?," Working Papers e07-42, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Blau, Benjamin M., 2017. "Economic freedom and crashes in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 33-46.
    17. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2012. "The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 693-707.
    18. Volkov, Nikanor I. & Smith, Garrett C., 2015. "Corporate diversification and firm value during economic downturns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 160-175.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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