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The permanent income hypothesis when the bliss point is stochastic

  • James M. Nason

A version of the permanent income model is developed in which the bliss point of the agent is stochastic. The bliss point depends on realizations of the stochastic process generating labor income and a random shock. The model predicts consumption and labor income share a common trend and that a linear combination of current consumption, current labor income, and once lagged consumption is stationary. Empirically, consumption appears more serially correlated than the model is capable of supporting. Further, the volatility of consumption appears sensitive to time variation in real interest rates.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 46.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:46
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  1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
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  15. Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W & Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1887-1908, December.
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  18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & David Marshall, 1987. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited," NBER Working Papers 2209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen, 1987. "Estimating Models with Intertemporal Substitution Using Aggregate Time Series Data," NBER Working Papers 2181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1987. "Is Consumption Insufficiently Sensitive to Innovations in Income?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 337-41, May.
  21. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1987. "Why is consumption less volatile than income?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-20.
  22. Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1989. "Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Volatility of Consumption and Wealth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 73-89.
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  25. James M. Nason, 1988. "The equity premium and time-varying risk behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139.
  27. Ryder, Harl E, Jr & Heal, Geoffrey M, 1973. "Optimum Growth with Intertemporally Dependent Preferences," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 1-33, January.
  28. Falk, Barry & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Time-series implications of Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 267-283, October.
  29. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1990. "Recursive Linear Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Working Papers 3479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Allan W. Gregory & James M. Nason, 1991. "Testing for Structural Breaks," Working Papers 827, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  31. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  32. Lewbel, Arthur, 1987. "Bliss Levels That Aren't [Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence]," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 211-15, February.
  33. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
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