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Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption

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  • Willman, Alpo

Abstract

In an overlapping generations maximization framework with consumers, whose information on uncertain future income realizations is front loaded, a closed form aggregate consumption function with CRRA preferences is derived. To have a closed form solution we assume that consumers solve their inter-temporal optimization problem sequentially. First they assess risk-adjusted life-time wealth and then the optimal consumption path. The derived model captures precautionary saving, which is dependent on the human to non-human wealth ratio. On aggregate level, after accounting for habit formation, the model is able to explain both the short-run (e.g. the excess sensitivity and the excess smoothness puzzle) and long-run stylized facts of the U.S. consumption data. JEL Classification: D11, D12, D82, E21

Suggested Citation

  • Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007765
    Note: 335687
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp765.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alistair DIEPPE & Alberto GONZÁLEZ PANDIELLA & Stephen HALL & Alpo WILLMAN, 2010. "MEMBER: Multi-Country Euro Area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality," EcoMod2010 259600046, EcoMod.
    2. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Willman, Alpo, 2012. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2597-2614.
    3. Willman, Alpo & Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Hall, Stephen, 2011. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations," Working Paper Series 1316, European Central Bank.
    4. João Ricardo Faria & Peter Mcadam, 2013. "Anticipation of Future Consumption: A Monetary Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 423-447, March.
    5. Lombardo, Giovanni & Vestin, David, 2008. "Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg-pricing assumptions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 275-279, August.
    6. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption; habit persistence; information; precautionary saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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