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The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations

Author

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  • Willman, Alpo
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • González Pandiella, Alberto
  • Hall, Stephen

Abstract

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form model of the economy, the minimal state variable solution (MSV), but they do not know the parameters. However, with medium-sized and large models the closed-form MSV solutions are difficult to attain given the large number of variables that could be included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep parameters of their own optimising frameworks. However, they are not assumed to know the structure nor the parameterisation of the rest of the economy, nor do they know the stochastic processes generating shocks hitting the economy. In addition, agents are assumed to know that the changes (or the growth rates) of fundament variables can be modelled as stationary ARMA (p,q) processes, the exact form of which is not, however, known by agents. This approach avoids the complexities of dealing with a potential vast multitude of alternative mis-specified MSVs. Using a new Multi-country Euro area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality we show this approach is compatible with the same limited information assumption that was used in deriving and estimating the behavioural equations of different optimizing agents. We find that there are strong differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared to expectations formed under the assumption of strong rationality. Furthermore, we find that some variation in expansionary fiscal policy in periods of downturns compared to boom periods. JEL Classification: C51, D83, D84, E17, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Willman, Alpo & Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Hall, Stephen, 2011. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations," Working Paper Series 1316, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111316
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank.
    2. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Henry, Jérôme & Kok, Christoffer & Amzallag, Adrien & Baudino, Patrizia & Cabral, Inês & Grodzicki, Maciej & Gross, Marco & Halaj, Grzegorz & Kolb, Markus & Leber, Miha & Pancaro, Cosimo & Sydow, Matt, 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    3. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Willman, Alpo, 2012. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2597-2614.
    4. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    5. Dieppe, Alistair & Ortega, Eva & D'Agostino, Antonello & Karlsson, Tohmas & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & Hurtado, Samuel & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
    6. Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2016. "Fiscal policy during the crisis: A look on Germany and the Euro area with GEAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 997-1016.
    8. Lombardo, Giovanni & McAdam, Peter, 2012. "Financial market frictions in a model of the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2460-2485.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bounded rationality; expectation; heterogeneity; imperfect information; learning; macro modelling; open-economy macroeconomics;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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