IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cmf/wpaper/wp2016_1605.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment Demand and Structural Change

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The sectoral composition of growing economies is largely affected by the evolution of the investment rate outside the balanced growth path. We present three novel facts consistent with this idea: (a) the value added share of manufacturing within investment goods is larger than within consumption goods, (b) the standard hump-shaped profile of manufacturing with development is much more apparent for the whole economy than for the investment and consumption goods separately, and (c) the investment rate displays a hump with development similar to the one of the value added share of manufacturing. Using a standard multi-sector growth model estimated with a large panel of countries, we find that this mechanism is especially important for the industrialization of several countries since the 1950's and for the deindustrialization of many Western economies since the 1970's. In addition, it explains a substantial part of the standard hump-shaped relationship between manufacturing and development, which has been a challenge for theories of structural transformation under balanced growth. Finally, the different composition of investment and consumption goods can also explain up to half of the decline in the relative price of investment since 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel García-Santana & Josep Pijoan-Mas & Lucciano Villacorta, 2016. "Investment Demand and Structural Change," Working Papers wp2016_1605, CEMFI.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2016_1605
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemfi.es/ftp/wp/1605.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Pinto, Brian & Radziwill, Artur, 2007. "Sources for financing domestic capital - Is foreign saving a viable option for developing countries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 682-702, September.
    3. Francisco J. Buera & Yongseok Shin, 2013. "Financial Frictions and the Persistence of History: A Quantitative Exploration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 221-272.
    4. Michelacci, Claudio & Pijoan-Mas, Josep, 2016. "Labor supply with job assignment under balanced growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 110-140.
    5. Diego Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2021. "Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 311-374, January.
    6. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    7. H. Uzawa, 1961. "Neutral Inventions and the Stability of Growth Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 117-124.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    9. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    10. Restuccia, Diego & Urrutia, Carlos, 2001. "Relative prices and investment rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 93-121, February.
    11. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    12. Richard Rogerson, 2008. "Structural Transformation and the Deterioration of European Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 235-259, April.
    13. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Long, Ngo Van & Poschke, Markus, 2018. "Capital-labor substitution, structural change and the labor income share," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 206-231.
    14. Benjamin Moll, 2014. "Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3186-3221, October.
    15. Timo Boppart, 2014. "Structural Change and the Kaldor Facts in a Growth Model With Relative Price Effects and Non‐Gorman Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2167-2196, November.
    16. Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Glenn MacDonald, 2004. "Investor Protection, Optimal Incentives, and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 1131-1175.
    17. Ezra Oberfield & Devesh Raval, 2021. "Micro Data and Macro Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 703-732, March.
    18. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "Understanding Japan's saving rate: the reconstruction hypothesis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 10-25.
    19. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    20. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & ?kos Valentinyi, 2013. "Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2752-2789, December.
    21. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    22. García-Santana, Manuel & Pijoan-Mas, Josep, 2014. "The reservation laws in India and the misallocation of production factors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 193-209.
    23. Klump, Rainer & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2004. "Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US: a normalized supply-side system approach," Working Paper Series 367, European Central Bank.
    24. John Laitner, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 545-561.
    25. Foellmi, Reto & Zweimüller, Josef, 2008. "Structural change, Engel's consumption cycles and Kaldor's facts of economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1317-1328, October.
    26. Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1994. "Endogenous Growth and Intermediation in an 'Archipelago' Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 462-473, March.
    27. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    28. Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "The Japanese saving rate between 1960 and 2000: productivity, policy changes, and demographics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 87-104, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pol Antràs, 2020. "De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age," NBER Working Papers 28115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bogusława Drelich-Skulska & Sebastian Bobowski & Jan Gola, 2021. "Global Value Chains in the Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Symptoms of Deglobalization," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 905-913.
    3. Miguel León-Ledesma & Alessio Moro, 2020. "The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 109-146, October.
    4. Sen, Ali, 2020. "Structural change within the services sector, Baumol's cost disease, and cross-country productivity differences," MPRA Paper 99614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Simon Alder & Andreas Mueller & Timo Boppart, 2018. "A theory of structural change that can fit the data," 2018 Meeting Papers 988, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Guo, Kaiming & Hang, Jing & Yan, Se, 2021. "Servicification of investment and structural transformation: The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2018. "Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Resource Countries: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers halshs-01707976, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clemens Struck & Adnan Velic, 2017. "Automation, New Technology, and Non-Homothetic Preferences," Trinity Economics Papers tep1217, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Raurich, Xavier, 2018. "Labor mobility, structural change and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 292-310.
    3. Clemens C. Struck, 2017. "On the Interaction of Growth, Trade and International Macroeconomics," Working Papers 201724, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    4. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    5. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Raurich, Xavier, 2015. "Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 359-374.
    6. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Long, Ngo & Poschke, Markus, 2017. "Capital-labor substitution, structural change and growth," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    7. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2020. "Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1400-1443.
    8. Timo Boppart, 2014. "Structural Change and the Kaldor Facts in a Growth Model With Relative Price Effects and Non‐Gorman Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2167-2196, November.
    9. KUROSE, Kazuhiro, 2015. "The Structure of the Models of Structural Change and Kaldor's Facts: A Critical Survey," CCES Discussion Paper Series 59, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Gray, Elie & Grimaud, André & Le Bris, David, 2018. "The Farmer, the Blue-collar, and the Monk: Understanding economic development through saturations of demands and non-homothetic productivity gains," TSE Working Papers 18-906, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    11. Jaime Alonso-Carrera & Giulia Felice & Xavier Raurich, 2018. "Inequality and Structural Change under Non-Linear Engels' Curve," UB Economics Working Papers 2018/374, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB School of Economics.
    12. Elie Gray & André Grimaud & David Le Bris, 2018. "The Farmer, the Blue-collar, and the Monk: Understanding Economic Development through Saturations of Demands and Non-Homothetic Productivity Gains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6970, CESifo.
    13. Guo, Kaiming & Hang, Jing & Yan, Se, 2021. "Servicification of investment and structural transformation: The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Simon Alder & Andreas Mueller & Timo Boppart, 2018. "A theory of structural change that can fit the data," 2018 Meeting Papers 988, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Edgar Cruz & Xavier Raurich, 2020. "Leisure time and the sectoral composition of employment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 198-219, October.
    16. van Neuss, Leif, 2018. "Globalization and deindustrialization in advanced countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 49-63.
    17. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    18. Jaime Alonso-Carrera & María Jesús Freire-Serén & Xavier Raurich, 2017. "Anatomizing the Mechanics of Structural Change," UB Economics Working Papers 2017/360, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB School of Economics.
    19. Tomasz Swiecki, 2017. "Determinants of Structural Change," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 95-131, March.
    20. Monteforte, Fabio, 2020. "Structural change, the push-pull hypothesis and the Spanish labour market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 148-169.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; transitional dynamics; neo-classical growth model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2016_1605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemfies.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Araceli Requerey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemfies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.