IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/988.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A theory of structural change that can fit the data

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Alder

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel H)

  • Andreas Mueller

    (University of Essex)

  • Timo Boppart

    (IIES, Stockholm University)

Abstract

We propose a dynamic theory that is consistent with the long-run structural change of consumption expenditure shares in agriculture, manufacturing and services over more than a century. We first document three robust features in the long-run data for the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia: (i) a monotonic decrease in agriculture; (ii) a hump shape in manufacturing; and (iii) an accelerated rise of services. Using historical panel data on sectoral prices and nominal expenditures from 1900 to 2014, we then test what demand side theory can quantitatively explain the observed structural change. We find that the standard non-homothetic preference specifications used in the literature - the generalized Stone-Geary and the Price Independent Generalized Linearity (PIGL) specification - struggle to do so. Within our intertemporal framework, we then consider the entire class of preferences that allows for the aggregation of individual Euler equations - the class of intertemporally aggregable (IA) preferences. This general class nests the standard specifications and allows for the identification of preference parameters from aggregate data. Moreover, its expenditure system is flexible enough to capture the non-monotonic relationship between sectoral expenditure shares. Despite the flexibility, the IA preference specification is parsimonious and can be used in a multi-sector general equilibrium model with steady growth and heterogeneity in individual consumption expenditures. In the empirical analysis we show that the standard specifications are rejected against the more flexible parameterizations of IA preferences and we document the importance of flexible income effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Alder & Andreas Mueller & Timo Boppart, 2018. "A theory of structural change that can fit the data," 2018 Meeting Papers 988, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:988
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2018/paper_988.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berthold Herrendorf & Christopher Herrington & Ákos Valentinyi, 2015. "Sectoral Technology and Structural Transformation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 104-133, October.
    2. Lucciano Villacorta & Josep Pijoan-Mas & Manuel Garcia-Santana, 2015. "Investment Demand and Structural Change," 2015 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    4. Alessio Moro & Solmaz Moslehi & Satoshi Tanaka, 2017. "Does Home Production Drive Structural Transformation?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 116-146, July.
    5. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
    6. Comin, Diego & Lashkari, Danial & Mestieri, Martí, 2015. "Structural Change with Long-run Income and Price Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 10846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    8. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    9. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    11. Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Alessio Moro, 2017. "The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data," Discussion Papers 1714, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    12. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2009. "Can Traditional Theories of Structural Change Fit The Data?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 469-477, 04-05.
    13. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-597, June.
    14. Arthur Lewbel, 1989. "Exact Aggregation and a Representative Consumer," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 621-633.
    15. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & ?kos Valentinyi, 2013. "Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2752-2789, December.
    16. Robert A. Pollak, 1971. "Additive Utility Functions and Linear Engel Curves," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 401-414.
    17. Buera, Francisco J. & Kaboski, Joseph P., 2012. "Scale and the origins of structural change," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 684-712.
    18. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & Ákos Valentinyi, 2018. "Structural Change in Investment and Consumption: A Unified Approach," NBER Working Papers 24568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-730, May.
    20. Muellbauer, John, 1976. "Community Preferences and the Representative Consumer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 979-999, September.
    21. Foellmi, Reto & Zweimüller, Josef, 2008. "Structural change, Engel's consumption cycles and Kaldor's facts of economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1317-1328, October.
    22. John Muellbauer, 1975. "Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 525-543.
    23. Hosoya, Yuhki, 2017. "The relationship between revealed preference and the Slutsky matrix," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 127-146.
    24. Lewbel, Arthur, 1987. "Characterizing Some Gorman Engel Curves," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1451-1459, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berthold Herrendorf & Lei Fang, 2019. "High-Skilled Services and Development in China," 2019 Meeting Papers 454, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Kjetil Storesletten & Bo Zhao & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2019. "Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 26181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sen, Ali, 2020. "Structural change within the services sector, Baumol's cost disease, and cross-country productivity differences," MPRA Paper 99614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fabian Eckert & Michael Peters, 2018. "Spatial Structural Change," 2018 Meeting Papers 98, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2020. "Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1400-1443.
    6. Tongtong Hao & Ruiqi Sun & Trevor Tombe & Xiaodong Zhu, 2020. "The Effect of Migration Policy on Growth, Structural Change, and Regional Inequality in China," Working Papers tecipa-659, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    7. Fabio Monteforte & Mathan Satchi & Jonathan Temple, 2019. "Development Priorities: The Relative Benefits of Agricultural Growth," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/716, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed018:988. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.