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Investment demand and structural change

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In this paper we study the joint evolution of the investment rate and the sectoral composition of developing economies. Using panel data for several countries in different stages of development we document three novel facts: (a) both the investment rate and the industrial weight in the economy are strongly correlated and follow a hump-shaped profile with development, (b) investment goods contain more domestic value added from industry and less from services than consumption goods do, and (c) the evolution of the sectoral composition of investment and consumption goods differs from the one of GDP. We build and estimate a multi-sector growth model to fit these patterns. Our results highlight a novel mechanism of structural change: the evolution of the investment rate driven by the standard income and substitution effect of transitional dynamics explains half of the hump in industry with development, while the standard income and relative price effects explain the rest. We also find that the evolution of investment demand is quantitatively important to understand the industrialization of several countries since 1950 and the deindustrialization of many Western economies since 1970.

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  • Manuel García-Santana & Josep Pijoan-Mas & Lucciano Villacorta, 2019. "Investment demand and structural change," Economics Working Papers 1668, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1668
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    2. Pol Antràs, 2020. "De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age," NBER Working Papers 28115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Simon Alder & Timo Boppart & Andreas Müller, 2022. "A Theory of Structural Change That Can Fit the Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 160-206, April.
    4. Casey, Gregory & Fried, Stephie & Gibson, Matthew, 2021. "Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment," IZA Discussion Papers 14974, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Miguel León-Ledesma & Alessio Moro, 2020. "The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 109-146, October.
    6. Sen, A., 2024. "Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2018. "Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Resource Countries: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers halshs-01707976, HAL.
    8. Chen, Qifei & Wang, Meng, 2022. "Opening of high-speed rail and the consumer service industry: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 31-45.
    9. Aristizabal-Ramirez, Maria & Leahy, John & Tesar, Linda L., 2023. "A north-south model of structural change and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 77-102.
    10. Miguel Angel Casau & Daniel Herrero, 2024. "Deindustrialization paths and growth models: Germany and Spain in comparative perspective," LEM Papers Series 2024/06, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Somlanare Romuald Kinda & Relwendé Sawadogo, 2023. "Does financial development really spur industrialization in sub‐Saharan African countries?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(4), pages 390-402, December.
    12. Sen, Ali, 2020. "Structural change within the services sector, Baumol's cost disease, and cross-country productivity differences," MPRA Paper 99614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Guo, Kaiming & Hang, Jing & Yan, Se, 2021. "Servicification of investment and structural transformation: The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Liao, Hua & Peng, Ying & Wang, Fang-Zhi & Zhang, Tong, 2022. "Understanding energy use growth: The role of investment-GDP ratio," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 15-24.
    15. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & Ákos Valentinyi, 2018. "Structural Change in Investment and Consumption: A Unified Approach," NBER Working Papers 24568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    17. Marcolino, Marcos, 2022. "Accounting for structural transformation in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Baumol's Climate Disease," Papers 2312.00160, arXiv.org.
    19. Valentinyi, Akos & Herrendorf, Berthold & Duernecker, Georg, 2017. "Structural Change within the Service Sector and the Future of Baumol's Disease," CEPR Discussion Papers 12467, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Bogusława Drelich-Skulska & Sebastian Bobowski & Jan Gola, 2021. "Global Value Chains in the Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Symptoms of Deglobalization," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 905-913.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; investment; growth; transitional dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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