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Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts

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  • Òscar Jordà
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

In advanced economies, a century-long near-stable ratio of credit to GDP gave way to rapid financialization and surging leverage in the last forty years. This “financial hockey stick” coincides with shifts in foundational macroeconomic relationships beyond the widely-noted return of macroeconomic fragility and crisis risk. Leverage is correlated with central business cycle moments, which we can document thanks to a decade-long international and historical data collection effort. More financialized economies exhibit somewhat less real volatility, but also lower growth, more tail risk, as well as tighter real-real and real-financial correlations. International real and financial cycles also cohere more strongly. The new stylized facts that we discover should prove fertile ground for the development of a new generation of macroeconomic models with a prominent role for financial factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Working Papers 22743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22743
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    Cited by:

    1. Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 36-64.
    2. Bordo, Michael D., 2017. "The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over:An Historical Perspective," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 319, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim, 2017. "Negative Bubbles: What Happens After a Crash," NBER Working Papers 23830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Till Strohsal & Christian R. Proaño & Jürgen Wolters, 2015. "Characterizing the Financial Cycle: Evidence from a Frequency Domain Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-021, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Emmanuel Carré & Guillaume L’Œillet, 2017. "Une revue de la littérature récente sur le nexus finance-croissance après la crise : apports, limites et pistes de recherche," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(3), pages 271-290.
    6. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2016. "Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 11503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. joshuabrault@cmail.carleton.ca & Hashmat Khan, "undated". "The Shifts in Lead-Lag Properties of the US Business Cycle," Carleton Economic Papers 18-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 3-28, Summer.
    9. repec:eee:jbfina:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:98-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Victor Olkhov, 2017. "Econophysics of Business Cycles: Aggregate Economic Fluctuations, Mean Risks and Mean Square Risks," Papers 1709.00282, arXiv.org.
    11. Guillaume Khayat, 2017. "The Corridor's Width as a Monetary Policy Tool," Working Papers halshs-01611650, HAL.
    12. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2018. "Changing credit limits, changing business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 211-239.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Banks: Evolution and Innovation in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 23847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    15. Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data," KOF Working papers 16-421, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    16. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:38-:d:138609 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Paul, Pascal, 2017. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 2017-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1427 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Stefan Behrendt, 2017. "Low Long-Term Interest Rates - An alternative View," Jena Economic Research Papers 2017-001, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    20. KLEIN, Mathias & WINKLER, Roland, 2018. "The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound: International evidence from historical data," Working Papers 2018001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    21. Paul, Pascal, 2017. "A Macroeconomic Model with Occasional Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 2017-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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