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When to Lean against the Wind

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  • BJÖRN RICHTER
  • MORITZ SCHULARICK
  • PAUL WACHTEL

Abstract

In this paper, we show that policymakers can distinguish between good and bad credit booms with high accuracy and they can do so in real time. Evidence from 17 countries over nearly 150 years of modern financial history shows that credit booms that are accompanied by house price booms and a rising loan‐to‐deposit ratio are much more likely to end in a systemic banking crisis than other credit booms. We evaluate the predictive accuracy for different classification models and show that characteristics observed in real time contain valuable information for sorting the data into good and bad booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2021. "When to Lean against the Wind," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 5-39, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:1:p:5-39
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12701
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Assessing Housing Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-15 11:28:50

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Enrico Perotti & Magdelena Rola-Janicka, 2019. "Funding Shocks and Credit Quality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-060/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter," IMFS Working Paper Series 133, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Paul Wachtel, 2018. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to Growth or Crisis?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 34-43, March.
    5. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An historical perspective on financial stability and monetary policy regimes: A case for caution in central banks current obsession with financial stability," Working Paper 2018/5, Norges Bank.
    6. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Chikako Baba & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Asghar Shahmoradi & Olamide Harrison & Anvar Musayev, 2020. "How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/006, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2020. "Which credit gap is better at predicting financial crises? A comparison of univariate filters," BIS Working Papers 878, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. López, Tania & Winkler, Adalbert, 2019. "Does financial inclusion mitigate credit boom-bust cycles?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 116-129.
    9. Vladimir Asriyan & Luc Laeven & Alberto Martín, 2018. "Collateral Booms and Information Depletion," Working Papers 1064, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    10. Winkler Adalbert, 2018. "Zehn Jahre nach dem Konkurs von Lehman Brothers: Ordnungspolitische Irrtümer in der Bewertung der EZB-Geldpolitik seit der globalen Finanzkrise," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 141-162, July.
    11. Doerr, Sebastian, 2018. "Collateral, Reallocation, and Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Boom," MPRA Paper 106163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2018. "Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter - at least to generate credit gaps," BIS Working Papers 744, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. David Longworth, 2020. "The Era of Digital Financial Innovation: Lessons from Economic History on Regulation," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 568, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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