IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v32y2018i3p31-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Atif Mian
  • Amir Sufi

Abstract

What is the role of the financial sector in explaining business cycles? This question is as old as the field of macroeconomics, and an extensive body of research conducted since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 has offered new answers. The specific idea put forward in this article is that expansions in credit supply, operating primarily through household demand, have been an important driver of business cycles. We call this the credit-driven household demand channel. While this channel helps explain the recent global recession, it also describes economic cycles in many countries over the past 40 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:32:y:2018:i:3:p:31-58
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.32.3.31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jep.32.3.31
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=vc6St9lR3rlBp5BXXrEMUqSFvJIVatG3
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=IlDgk3Es7MJRX5Iqd_2u-Vrq1YCrytoD
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    2. David López-Salido & Jeremy C. Stein & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(3), pages 1373-1426.
    3. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    5. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2017. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 654-712.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    7. Jith Jayaratne & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 639-670.
    8. Gita Gopinath & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Loukas Karabarbounis & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2017. "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1915-1967.
    9. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Randall S. Kroszner & Philip E. Strahan, 2014. "Regulation and Deregulation of the U.S. Banking Industry: Causes, Consequences, and Implications for the Future," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned?, pages 485-543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    12. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    13. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-1366, September.
    14. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Why did so many people make so many ex post bad decisions? the causes of the foreclosure crisis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    15. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1904-1937, July.
    16. John M. Griffin & Gonzalo Maturana, 2016. "Did Dubious Mortgage Origination Practices Distort House Prices?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1671-1708.
    17. Adam M Guren & Timothy J McQuade, 2020. "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 1331-1364.
    18. Bhutta, Neil, 2015. "The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing boom and bust," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 284-298.
    19. Scott R. Baker, 2018. "Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1504-1557.
    20. Martin Beraja & Andreas Fuster & Erik Hurst & Joseph Vavra, 2017. "Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 23270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Claudio Borio & Enisse Kharroubi & Christian Upper & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Labour reallocation and productivity dynamics: financial causes, real consequences," BIS Working Papers 534, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 354-374, May.
    23. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    24. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    25. King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April.
    26. Krishnamurthy, Arvind & Muir, Tyler, 2017. "How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis," Research Papers repec:ecl:stabus:3579, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    27. Elliot Anenberg & Aurel Hizmo & Edward Kung & Raven S. Molloy, 2017. "Measuring Mortgage Credit Availability : A Frontier Estimation Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    29. Elliot Anenberg & Edward Kung, 2014. "Estimates of the Size and Source of Price Declines Due to Nearby Foreclosures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2527-2551, August.
    30. Zhen Huo & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2016. "Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, and the Great Recession," Staff Report 526, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    31. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    32. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "Housing Booms and Busts, Labor Market Opportunities, and College Attendance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(10), pages 2947-2994, October.
    33. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    34. Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 235-299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    36. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    37. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Tyler Muir, 2017. "How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 23850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Danny Yagan, 2017. "Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 23844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Reuven Glick & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Global household leverage, house prices, and consumption," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan11.
    40. Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & James Witkin, 2015. "Asset Quality Misrepresentation by Financial Intermediaries: Evidence from the RMBS Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2635-2678, December.
    41. Yannick Kalantzis, 2015. "Financial Fragility in Small Open Economies: Firm Balance Sheets and the Sectoral Structure," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1194-1222.
    42. Levitin, Adam & Wachter, Susan, 2012. "Explaining the Housing Bubble," MPRA Paper 41920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
    44. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
    45. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Currency Pegs, and Involuntary Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1466-1514.
    46. Bunn, Philip & Rostom, May, 2015. "Household debt and spending in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 554, Bank of England.
    47. Lars Jonung & Thomas Hagberg, 2005. "How costly was the crisis of the 1990s? A comparative analysis of the deepest crises in Finland and Sweden over the last 130 years," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 224, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    48. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    49. Bahadir, Berrak & Gumus, Inci, 2016. "Credit decomposition and business cycles in emerging market economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 250-262.
    50. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
    51. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    2. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "How do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 23802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2021. "Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity: The role of corporate securities issuance," Discussion Papers 2021/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    5. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons," Working Papers 2019-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Martynova, Natalya & Ratnovski, Lev & Vlahu, Razvan, 2020. "Bank profitability, leverage constraints, and risk-taking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    8. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    9. Segev, Nimrod & Schaffer, Matthew, 2020. "Monetary policy, bank competition and regional credit cycles: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    11. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2020. "Predictable Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 27396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    13. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    14. Kruger, Samuel, 2018. "The effect of mortgage securitization on foreclosure and modification," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 586-607.
    15. Enrico Perotti & Magdelena Rola-Janicka, 2019. "Funding Shocks and Credit Quality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-060/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    17. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    19. Daniel García, 2020. "Employment in the Great Recession: How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 165-203, February.
    20. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:32:y:2018:i:3:p:31-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael P. Albert). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.