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Indebted Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Atif Mian
  • Ludwig Straub
  • Amir Sufi

Abstract

We propose a theory of indebted demand, capturing the idea that large debt burdens lower aggregate demand, and thus the natural rate of interest. At the core of the theory is the simple yet underappreciated observation that borrowers and savers differ in their marginal propensities to save out of permanent income. Embedding this insight in a two-agent perpetual-youth model, we find that recent trends in income inequality and financial deregulation lead to indebted household demand, pushing down the natural rate of interest. Moreover, popular expansionary policies—such as accommodative monetary policy—generate a debt-financed short-run boom at the expense of indebted demand in the future. When demand is sufficiently indebted, the economy gets stuck in a debt-driven liquidity trap, or debt trap. Escaping a debt trap requires consideration of less conventional macroeconomic policies, such as those focused on redistribution or those reducing the structural sources of high inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:136:y:2021:i:4:p:2243-2307.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjab007
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. COVID-19 Economic Downturn: What do cyclical norms suggest?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-04-19 18:42:37

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Palagi, Elisa & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Gaffard, Jean-Luc, 2023. "An agent-based model of trickle-up growth and income inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Blomme, Océane & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2025. "Inequality, current account imbalances, and middle incomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Alina Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike Steins, 2025. "The Distribution of Household Debt in the United States, 1950-2022," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 57, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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