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How do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s

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Listed:
  • Atif Mian
  • Amir Sufi
  • Emil Verner

Abstract

We study the business cycle consequences of credit supply expansion in the U.S. The 1980's credit boom resulted in stronger credit expansion in more deregulated states, and these states experience a more amplified business cycle. A new test shows that amplification is primarily driven by the local demand rather than the production capacity channel. States with greater exposure to credit expansion experience larger increases in household debt, the relative price of non-tradable goods, nominal wages, and non-tradable employment. Yet there is no change in tradable sector employment. Eventually states with greater exposure to credit expansion experience a significantly deeper recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "How do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 23802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2018. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," NBER Working Papers 24329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John (Jianqiu) Bai & Daniel Carvalho & Gordon M. Phillips, 2017. "The Impact of Bank Credit on Labor Reallocation and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 24081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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