IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/24329.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Emily Breza
  • Cynthia Kinnan

Abstract

In October 2010, the state government of Andhra Pradesh, India issued an emergency ordinance, bringing microfinance activities in the state to a complete halt and causing a nation-wide shock to the liquidity of lenders, especially those with loans in the affected state. We use this massive dislocation in the microfinance market to identify the causal impacts of a reduction in credit supply on consumption, earnings, and employment in general equilibrium in rural labor markets. Using a proprietary district-level data set from 25 separate, for-profit microlenders matched with household data from the National Sample Survey, we find that district-level reductions in credit supply are associated with significant decreases in casual daily wages, household wage earnings and consumption. We find a substantial consumption multiplier from credit that is likely driven by two channels – aggregate demand and business investment. We calibrate a simple two-period, two-sector model of the rural economy that incorporates both channels and show that the magnitude of our wage results is consistent with the model’s predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2018. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," NBER Working Papers 24329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24329
    Note: CF DEV LS PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24329.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandro Tarozzi & Jaikishan Desai & Kristin Johnson, 2015. "The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Ethiopia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 54-89, January.
    2. Christopher Blattman & Donald Green & Daniel Ortega & Santiago Tobón, 2017. "Place-Based Interventions at Scale: The Direct and Spillover Effects of Policing and City Services on Crime," NBER Working Papers 23941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-827, August.
    4. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2005. "Hidden impact? Household saving in response to a poor-area development project," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(11-12), pages 2183-2204, December.
    5. Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Heike Harmgart & Costas Meghir, 2015. "The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 183-203, January.
    6. Ahlin, Christian & Jiang, Neville, 2008. "Can micro-credit bring development?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Manuela Angelucci & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2015. "Microcredit Impacts: Evidence from a Randomized Microcredit Program Placement Experiment by Compartamos Banco," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 151-182, January.
    8. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-298, April.
    9. Michael Greenstone & Alexandre Mas & Hoai-Luu Nguyen, 2020. "Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and "Normal" Economic Times," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 200-225, February.
    10. Brian P. Greaney & Joseph P. Kaboski & Eva Van Leemput, 2016. "Can Self-Help Groups Really Be "Self-Help"?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(4), pages 1614-1644.
    11. Agha Ali Akram & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2017. "Effects of Emigration on Rural Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 23929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bruno Crépon & Florencia Devoto & Esther Duflo & William Parienté, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Microcredit on Those Who Take It Up: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Morocco," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 123-150, January.
    13. Daniel Paravisini, 2008. "Local Bank Financial Constraints and Firm Access to External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2161-2193, October.
    14. Clément Imbert & John Papp, 2015. "Labor Market Effects of Social Programs: Evidence from India's Employment Guarantee," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 233-263, April.
    15. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton, 1997. "A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 151-172.
    16. Ben Yishay, Ariel & Fraker, Andrew & Guiteras, Raymond & Palloni, Giordano & Shah, Neil Buddy & Shirrell, Stuart & Wang, Paul, 2017. "Microcredit and willingness to pay for environmental quality: Evidence from a randomized-controlled trial of finance for sanitation in rural Cambodia," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 121-140.
    17. Florencia Devoto & Esther Duflo & Pascaline Dupas & William Parienté & Vincent Pons, 2012. "Happiness on Tap: Piped Water Adoption in Urban Morocco," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 68-99, November.
    18. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    19. Erica Field & Rohini Pande & John Papp & Natalia Rigol, 2013. "Does the Classic Microfinance Model Discourage Entrepreneurship among the Poor? Experimental Evidence from India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2196-2226, October.
    20. Robin Burgess & Rohini Pande, 2005. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 780-795, June.
    21. Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Emla Fitzsimons & Heike Harmgart, 2015. "The Impacts of Microfinance: Evidence from Joint-Liability Lending in Mongolia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 90-122, January.
    22. Seema Jayachandran, 2006. "Selling Labor Low: Wage Responses to Productivity Shocks in Developing Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 538-575, June.
    23. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "How do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 23802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    25. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia Kinnan, 2015. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 22-53, January.
    26. Joseph P. Kaboski & Robert M. Townsend, 2011. "A Structural Evaluation of a Large‐Scale Quasi‐Experimental Microfinance Initiative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1357-1406, September.
    27. Alessandro Tarozzi & Aprajit Mahajan & Brian Blackburn & Dan Kopf & Lakshmi Krishnan & Joanne Yoong, 2014. "Micro-loans, Insecticide-Treated Bednets, and Malaria: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Orissa, India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1909-1941, July.
    28. Abhijit Banerjee & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2015. "Six Randomized Evaluations of Microcredit: Introduction and Further Steps," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
    29. Paul J. Gertler & Sebastian W. Martinez & Marta Rubio-Codina, 2012. "Investing Cash Transfers to Raise Long-Term Living Standards," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 164-192, January.
    30. Günther Fink & B. Kelsey Jack & Felix Masiye, 2018. "Seasonal Liquidity, Rural Labor Markets and Agricultural Production," NBER Working Papers 24564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Solène Morvant-Roux, 2011. "Is Microfinance the Adequate Tool to Finance Agriculture?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Beatriz Armendáriz & Marc Labie (ed.), The Handbook Of Microfinance, chapter 20, pages 421-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    32. Rachael Meager, 2015. "Understanding the Impact of Microcredit Expansions: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of 7 Randomised Experiments," Papers 1506.06669, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hoffmann, Vivian & Rao, Vijayendra & Surendra, Vaishnavi & Datta, Upamanyu, 2021. "Relief from usury: Impact of a self-help group lending program in rural India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Saxena, Vibhor & Bindal, Ishaan & LeMay-Boucher, Philippe, 2020. "Social groups and credit shocks: Evidence of inequalities in consumption smoothing," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 311-326.
    3. Marshall Burke & Lauren Falcao Bergquist & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Sell Low and Buy High: Arbitrage and Local Price Effects in Kenyan Markets," NBER Working Papers 24476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bardsley, Peter & Meager, Rachael, 2019. "Competing lending platforms, endogenous reputation, and fragility in microcredit markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 107-126.
    5. Kristina Czura & Anett John & Lisa Spantig, 2020. "Flexible Microcredit: Effects on Loan Repayment and Social Pressure," CESifo Working Paper Series 8322, CESifo.
    6. Christian Ahlin, 2020. "Group lending, matching patterns, and the mystery of microcredit: Evidence from Thailand," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), pages 713-759, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafael P. Ribas, 2020. "Liquidity constraints, spillovers, and entrepreneurship: evidence from a cash transfer program," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1131-1158, December.
    2. N'dri, Lasme Mathieu & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2020. "Financial inclusion, mobile money, and individual welfare: The case of Burkina Faso," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    3. Ahlin, Christian & Gulesci, Selim & Madestam, Andreas & Stryjan, Miri, 2020. "Loan contract structure and adverse selection: Survey evidence from Uganda," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 180-195.
    4. Abhijit Banerjee & Emily Breza & Esther Duflo & Cynthia Kinnan, 2019. "Can Microfinance Unlock a Poverty Trap for Some Entrepreneurs?," NBER Working Papers 26346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gyorgy Molnar & Attila Havas, 2019. "Escaping from the poverty trap with social innovation: a social microcredit programme in Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1912, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    6. Dahal, Mahesh & Fiala, Nathan, 2020. "What do we know about the impact of microfinance? The problems of statistical power and precision," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Manthos D. Delis & Fulvia Fringuellotti & Steven Ongena, 2020. "Credit, Income, and Inequality," Staff Reports 929, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Pedro Carneiro & Sokbae Lee & Daniel Wilhelm, 2020. "Optimal data collection for randomized control trials [Microcredit impacts: Evidence from a randomized microcredit program placement experiment by Compartamos Banco]," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(1), pages 1-31.
    9. Czura, Kristina, 2015. "Do flexible repayment schedules improve the impact of microcredit?," Discussion Papers in Economics 26608, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Karlan, Dean & Osman, Adam & Zinman, Jonathan, 2016. "Follow the money not the cash: Comparing methods for identifying consumption and investment responses to a liquidity shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 11-23.
    11. Nakano, Yuko & Magezi, Eustadius F., 2020. "The impact of microcredit on agricultural technology adoption and productivity: Evidence from randomized control trial in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Bernardus Van Doornik & Armando Gomes & David Schoenherr & Janis Skrastins, 2021. "Financial Access and Labor Market Outcomes: evidence from credit lotteries," Working Papers Series 547, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Susmita Baulia, 2017. "Take-up of joint and individual liability loans: an analysis with laboratory experiments," Discussion Papers 117, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    14. Alem, Yonas & Ruhinduka, Remidius D., 2020. "Saving Africa's tropical forests through energy transition: A randomized controlled trial in Tanzania," Ruhr Economic Papers 885, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Baulia, Susmita, 2019. "Take-up of joint and individual liability loans: An analysis with laboratory experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Dammert, Ana C. & de Hoop, Jacobus & Mvukiyehe, Eric & Rosati, Furio C., 2018. "Effects of public policy on child labor: Current knowledge, gaps, and implications for program design," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 104-123.
    17. Farah Said, 2016. "Access to Finance and Agency: An Overview of the Constraints to Female-Run Enterprises," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(Special E), pages 331-349, September.
    18. Meager, Rachael & Sturdy, Jennifer, 2017. "Aggregating Distributional Treatment Effects: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of the Microcredit Literature," MetaArXiv 7tkvm, Center for Open Science.
    19. Rachael Meager, 2015. "Understanding the Impact of Microcredit Expansions: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of 7 Randomised Experiments," Papers 1506.06669, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    20. Lucia Dalla Pellegrina & Giorgio Di Maio & Paolo Landoni & Emanuele Rusinà, 2021. "Money management and entrepreneurial training in microfinance: impact on beneficiaries and institutions," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1049-1085, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.