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Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis

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  • Emily Breza
  • Cynthia Kinnan

Abstract

In October 2010, the state government of Andhra Pradesh, India issued an emergency ordinance, bringing microfinance activities in the state to a complete halt and causing a nation-wide shock to the liquidity of lenders, especially those with loans in the affected state. The paper used the massive dislocation in the microfinance market to identify the causal impacts of a reduction in credit supply on consumption, earnings, and employment in general equilibrium. Using a proprietary, hand-collected district-level data set from 25 separate, for-profit microlenders matched with household data from the National Sample Survey, It was found that district-level reductions in credit supply are associated with significant decreases in casual daily wages, household wage earnings and consumption. It was also found that wages in the non-tradable sector fall more than in the tradable sector (agriculture), suggesting that one important impact of the microfinance contraction was transmitted through its effect on aggregate demand. The paper presents a simple two period, two-sector model of the rural economy illustrating this channel and show that our wage results are consistent with a simple calibration of the model.

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  • Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2018. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," Working Papers id:12587, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:12587
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    2. Kristina Czura & Anett John & Lisa Spantig, 2020. "Flexible Contract, Flexible Morale? Microcredit Design and Repayment Discipline," CESifo Working Paper Series 8322, CESifo.
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    4. Bhalotra, Sonia & Fernandez, Manuel & Wang, Fan, 2022. "The Distribution of the Gender Wage Gap: An Equilibrium Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 17253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Christian Ahlin, 2020. "Group lending, matching patterns, and the mystery of microcredit: Evidence from Thailand," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), pages 713-759, May.
    6. Hoffmann, Vivian & Rao, Vijayendra & Surendra, Vaishnavi & Datta, Upamanyu, 2021. "Relief from usury: Impact of a self-help group lending program in rural India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
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    8. Siwan Anderson, 2022. "Unbundling female empowerment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 1671-1701, November.
    9. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2020. "Taking Stock of the Evidence on Microfinancial Interventions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(2), pages 173-202, May.
    10. Saxena, Vibhor & Bindal, Ishaan & LeMay-Boucher, Philippe, 2020. "Social groups and credit shocks: Evidence of inequalities in consumption smoothing," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 311-326.
    11. Kim Huynh & Robert Petrunia & Joel Rodrigue & Walter Steingress, 2023. "Exporting and Investment Under Credit Constraints," Staff Working Papers 23-10, Bank of Canada.
    12. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Erika Deserranno & Ricardo Morel & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman & Jack Thiemel, 2022. "Microfinance and Diversification," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 239-275, June.
    13. Fan Wang, 2022. "An Empirical Equilibrium Model of Formal and Informal Credit Markets in Developing Countries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 224-243, October.
    14. Marshall Burke & Lauren Falcao Bergquist & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Sell Low and Buy High: Arbitrage and Local Price Effects in Kenyan Markets," NBER Working Papers 24476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Dagmara Celik Katreniak & Alexey Khazanov & Omer Moav & Zvika Neeman & Hosny Zoabi, 2023. "Why Not Borrow, Invest, and Escape Poverty?," Papers 2305.02546, arXiv.org.
    16. Meager, Rachael, 2022. "Aggregating distributional treatment effects: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of the microcredit literature," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115559, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Meishan Jiang & Krishna P. Paudel & Fan Zou, 2020. "Do Microcredit Loans Do What They Are Intended To Do? A Case Study of the Credit Village Microcredit Programme in China," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 763-792, July.
    18. Nicola Limodio & Francesco Strobbe, 2023. "Liquidity Requirements, Bank Deposits and Financial Development," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 240-270, January.
    19. Michael A. Clemens & Timothy N. Ogden, 2020. "Migration and household finances: How a different framing can improve thinking about migration," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 38(1), pages 3-27, January.
    20. Siwach, Garima & Paul, Sohini & de Hoop, Thomas, 2022. "Economies of scale of large-scale international development interventions: Evidence from self-help groups in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    21. Bardsley, Peter & Meager, Rachael, 2019. "Competing lending platforms, endogenous reputation, and fragility in microcredit markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 107-126.
    22. Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik & Armando Gomes & David Schoenherr & Janis Skrastins, 2023. "Financial access and labor market outcomes: evidence from credit lotteries," BIS Working Papers 1071, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    eSS; state government; emergency ordinance; microfinance activities; liquidity of lenders; loans; massive dislocation; microfinance market; casual impacts; credit supply; consumption; earning; employment; micro-lenders; district-level reductions; casual daily wages; household wage earnings; agriculture; rural economy; wage results.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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