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How Do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s

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Abstract

We study the business cycle consequences of credit supply expansion in the U.S. The 1980's credit boom resulted in stronger credit expansion in more deregulated states, and these states experience a more amplified business cycle. A new test shows that amplification is primarily driven by the local demand rather than the production capacity channel. States with greater exposure to credit expansion experience larger increases in household debt, the relative price of non-tradable goods, nominal wages, and non-tradable employment. Yet there is no change in tradable sector employment. Eventually states with greater exposure to credit expansion experience a significantly deeper recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "How Do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s," Community Development Publications and Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 1-59, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:l00101:103209
    Note: The St. Louis Fed Center for Household Financial Stability and the Private Debt Project hosted three "Tipping Points" Household Debt Research Symposia, 2016-2018. All three sessions were centered on the question of "tipping points" in regard to debt: How and when does household debt move from being wealth-building and productive for households and the economy to being wealth-depleting and destructive for both?; Conference Materials: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/tipping-points-ii-mapping-understanding-impact-debt-economic-growth-9373/session-list-685749; Conference Executive Summary: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/tipping-points-ii-mapping-understanding-impact-debt-economic-growth-9373/executive-summary-685748; Tipping Points Conference Series: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/series/tipping-points-conference-series-9375
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    2. Greg Buchak, 2024. "Financing the Gig Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 219-256, February.
    3. Adrien Auclert & Will S. Dobbie & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 25685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2021. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1447-1497.
    5. Enrico Perotti & Magdelena Rola-Janicka, 2019. "Funding Shocks and Credit Quality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-060/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Luke Petach, 2020. "Local financialization, household debt, and the great recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(3), pages 807-839, June.
    7. Peter Bednarek & Daniel Marcel te Kaat & Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles:Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 5077-5134.
    8. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1168, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Federico Cingano & Fadi Hassan, 2020. "International financial flows and misallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1697, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    11. Peterson K. Ozili & Jide Oladipo & Paul Terhemba Iorember, 2022. "Effect of abnormal credit expansion and contraction on GDP per capita in ECOWAS countries," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(3), November.
    12. Thanh Nguyen & Arsenio Staer & Jing Yang, 2024. "Productivity Shocks of Dominant Companies and Local Housing Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 27(2), pages 203-247.
    13. Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Countercyclical Capital Buffers," Working Papers 2019-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Jan 2020.
    14. John (Jianqiu) Bai & Daniel Carvalho & Gordon M. Phillips, 2018. "The Impact of Bank Credit on Labor Reallocation and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2787-2836, December.
    15. Illing, Gerhard & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2018. "Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 78-104.
    16. Berrak Bahadir & Inci Gumus, 2021. "Transmission of Household and Business Credit Shocks in Emerging Markets: The Role of Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 587-617, September.
    17. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Stephen Burgess & Richard Galletly & Iren Levina & Cian O'Neill & Alexandra Varadi, 2018. "Measuring risks to UK financial stability," Bank of England working papers 738, Bank of England.
    18. Katarzyna Budnik & Gerhard Rünstler, 2023. "Identifying structural VARs from sparse narrative instruments: Dynamic effects of US macroprudential policies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 186-201, March.
    19. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Bashir Ahmad Joo & Simtiha Ishaq Mir, 2024. "Evolution of the Household Debt Narrative: A PRISMA-compliant Systematic Literature Review," Paradigm, , vol. 28(1), pages 84-100, June.
    21. Gustavo Joaquim & Bernardus Van Doornik & José Renato Ornelas, 2019. "Bank Competition, Cost of Credit and Economic Activity: evidence from Brazil," Working Papers Series 508, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Alina Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike Steins, 2025. "The Distribution of Household Debt in the United States, 1950-2022," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 57, July.
    23. Kim, Jeong Ho (John) & Lee, Heebum & Lee, Sung Kwan, 2022. "Do credit supply shocks affect fertility choices?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    24. Francesco Manaresi & Mr. Nicola Pierri, 2019. "Credit Supply and Productivity Growth," IMF Working Papers 2019/107, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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