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Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation

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  • Illing, Gerhard
  • Ono, Yoshiyasu
  • Schlegl, Matthias

Abstract

Why do economies fall into prolonged periods of economic stagnation, particularly in the aftermath of credit booms? We study the interactions between household debt, liquidity and asset prices in a model of persistent demand shortage. We show that financially more deregulated economies are more likely to experience persistent stagnation. Credit booms or asset price booms mask this structural aggregate demand deficiency. However, the resulting debt overhang permanently depresses spending in the long run. Hence, the contractionary long run effects of relaxing lending standards are the opposite of their expansionary short run effects. These findings are in line with the macroeconomic developments in Japan during its lost decades and other advanced economies before and during the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Illing, Gerhard & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2018. "Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 78-104.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:c:p:78-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.06.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2020. "A simple aggregate demand analysis with dynamic optimization in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 89-99.
    2. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
    3. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2020. "Structural Unemployment, Underemployment, and Secular Stagnation," CESifo Working Paper Series 8318, CESifo.
    4. Kaz Miyagiwa & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2019. "Immigration and Secular Stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1054, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2020. "Structural Unemployment, Underemployment, and Secular Stagnation," CESifo Working Paper Series 8318, CESifo.
    6. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2020. "Financial Crisis and Slow Recovery with Bayesian Learning Agents," ISER Discussion Paper 1085, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    7. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2020. "Structural Unemployment, Underemployment, and Secular Stagnation," CESifo Working Paper Series 8318, CESifo.
    8. Ikefuji, Masako & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2021. "Environmental policies in a stagnant economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Murota, Ryu-ichiro, 2019. "Negative interest rate policy in a permanent liquidity trap," MPRA Paper 93498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Matthias Schlegl, 2018. "Secular Stagnation in an Economy with Land," ISER Discussion Paper 1032, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Kaz Miyagiwa & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2019. "Immigration and Secular Stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1054r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Jun 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular stagnation; Aggregate demand deficiency; Liquidity preferences; Credit booms; Debt overhang;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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