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Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation

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  • Gerhard Illing
  • Yoshiyasu Ono
  • Matthias Schlegl

Abstract

Why do advanced economies fall into prolonged periods of economic stagnation, particularly in the aftermath of credit booms? We present a model of persistent aggregate demand shortage based on strong liquidity preferences of households, in which we incorporate financial imperfections to study the interactions between debt, liquidity and asset prices. We show that financially more deregulated economies are more likely to experience persistent stagnation. In the short run, credit booms can mask this structural aggregate demand deficiency. However, the resulting debt overhang permanently depresses spending in the long run since deleveraging becomes self-defeating because of debt deflation. These findings are in line with the macroeconomic developments in Japan during its lost decades and other advanced economies before and during the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Illing & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2017. "Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6796, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6796
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    Cited by:

    1. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2022. "Financial crisis and slow recovery with Bayesian learning agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(4), pages 578-606, December.
    2. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
    3. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2020. "Structural Unemployment, Underemployment, and Secular Stagnation," CESifo Working Paper Series 8318, CESifo.
    4. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2020. "A simple aggregate demand analysis with dynamic optimization in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 89-99.
    5. Ikefuji, Masako & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2021. "Environmental policies in a stagnant economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Kaz Miyagiwa & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2019. "Immigration and Secular Stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1054r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Jun 2019.
    7. Murota, Ryu-ichiro, 2019. "Negative interest rate policy in a permanent liquidity trap," MPRA Paper 93498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wu, Dan & Li, Rong & Li, Yingting, 2024. "Impact of Off-Balance-Sheet Activities on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Matthias Schlegl, 2018. "Secular Stagnation in an Economy with Land," ISER Discussion Paper 1032, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. repec:dpr:wpaper:1241r is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Daisuke Matsuzaki & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2023. "Economic stimulus effects of product innovation under demand stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1204r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Jul 2023.
    12. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Structural unemployment, underemployment, and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    13. Daisuke Matsuzaki & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2023. "Economic stimulus effects of product innovation under demand stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1204rr, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2023.
    14. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Kaz Miyagiwa & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2024. "Was Keynes right? A reconsideration of the effect of a protective tariff under stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1245, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    15. Kaz Miyagiwa & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2019. "Immigration and Secular Stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1054, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    16. repec:dpr:wpaper:1241 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Masako Ikefuji & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2023. "Environmental Policies and Stagnation in a Two-Country Economy," ISER Discussion Paper 1222, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    18. Mika Akesaka & Ryo Mikami & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2024. "Insatiable Wealth Preference: Evidence from Japanese Household Survey," ISER Discussion Paper 1241rr, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Oct 2024.
    19. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2020. "Structural Unemployment, Underemployment, and Secular Stagnation," CESifo Working Paper Series 8318, CESifo.
    20. Daisuke Matsuzaki & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2023. "Economic stimulus effects of product innovation under demand stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1204, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    secular stagnation; aggregate demand deficiency; liquidity preferences; financial frictions. leverage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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