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The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles

Listed author(s):
  • Òscar Jordà
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Alan M. Taylor

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the twentieth century, driven by a sharp rise of mortgage lending to households. Household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries. Financial stability risks have been increasingly linked to real estate lending booms, which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in the modern macroeconomy.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/epolic/eiv017
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Article provided by CEPR & CES & MSH in its journal Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 31 (2016)
Issue (Month): 85 ()
Pages: 107-152

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:31:y:2016:i:85:p:107-152.
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Thomas Philippon & Ariell Reshef, 2013. "An International Look at the Growth of Modern Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 73-96, Spring.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2014. "The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy," SAFE Working Paper Series 79, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  4. David Aikman & Andrew G. Haldane & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Curbing the Credit Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1072-1109, 06.
  5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA.
  6. Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 7570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Daniel K. Fetter, 2011. "How Do Mortgage Subsidies Affect Home Ownership? Evidence from the Mid-century GI Bills," NBER Working Papers 17166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," 2013 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
  11. Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" halshs-01109372, HAL.
  12. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, September.
  13. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," NBER Working Papers 19355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Anat Admati & Martin Hellwig, 2013. "The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9929.
  15. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database; An Update," IMF Working Papers 12/163, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
  17. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226081946 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Angus Maddison, 2005. "Measuring And Interpreting World Economic Performance 1500-2001," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 1-35, 03.
  19. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  20. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Hoffman, Philip T. & Postel-Vinay, Gilles & Rosenthal, Jean-Laurent, 2001. "Priceless Markets," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226348018.
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