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What determines output losses after banking crises?

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  • Devereux, John
  • Dwyer, Gerald P.

Abstract

We examine the output costs associated with 150 banking crises using cross country data for years after 1970. Many banking crises do not lead to contractions and most banking crises do not lead to large contractions, a result that holds for developed and developing economies. We examine which variables help to predict output changes after a banking crisis using Bayesian Model Averaging. For developed economies, we find that the output losses are positively related to prior economic conditions such as credit growth. For low-income economies, we find that other factors such as having a stock market and deposit insurance are more important.

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  • Devereux, John & Dwyer, Gerald P., 2016. "What determines output losses after banking crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 69-94.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:69:y:2016:i:c:p:69-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.10.004
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    3. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    4. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Zuzana Fungáčová & Eeva Kerola & Laurent Weill, 2022. "Does Experience of Banking Crises Affect Trust in Banks?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 61-90, October.
    6. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    7. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
    8. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Ilias, 2021. "Economic stimulus through bank regulation: Government responses to the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Silvia Marchesi & Giovanna Marcolongo, 2023. "Knockin' on H(e)aven's door. Financial crises and hidden wealth," Working Papers 518, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
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    12. Zuzana Fungáčová & Eeva Kerola & Laurent Weill, 2022. "Does Experience of Banking Crises Affect Trust in Banks?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 61-90, October.

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