Recessions, Growth and Financial Crises
We examine the relationship of banking crises with economic growth and recessions. Our data cover 21 economies from around the world, most from 1870 to 2009 with the rest starting in 1901 or earlier. The data include capital investment and human capital formation. We have two major findings. First, there is very large heterogeneity in growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and capital investment after banking crises. Most strikingly, twenty-five percent of counties experience no decrease in real GDP per capita in the year of the crisis or the following two years. Some countries see an increase in long run growth after a crisis while others see a fall, with no clear overall pattern. Second, we find clear evidence consistent with Zarnowitz’s Law. If there is a contraction in economic activity after a banking crisis, larger decreases in real GDP per capita are followed by faster subsequent growth.
|Date of creation:||May 2013|
|Date of revision:||Oct 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1999.
"Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability ? An empirical investigation,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2247, The World Bank.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
- Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1751, Econometric Society.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, October.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005.
"Systemic Crises and Growth,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1451, CESifo Group Munich.
- Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic crises and growth," Economics Working Papers 854, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2004.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic Crises and Growth," Working Papers 190, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009.
"The Aftermath of Financial Crises,"
11129155, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, October.
- Maddison, A., 1991.
"A Long Run Perspective on Saving,"
443, Groningen State, Institute of Economic Research-.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1988.
"Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income,"
88-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
- Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1989. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," NBER Working Papers 3189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9002, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
- Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1988. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," RCER Working Papers 131, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2010.
"Credit crises, money and contractions: An historical view,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2009. "Credit Crises, Money and Contractions: an historical view," NBER Working Papers 15389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2009. "Credit crises, money, and contractions: A historical view," Working Paper 0908, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- repec:fth:wobaco:1083 is not listed on IDEAS
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006.
"How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
- Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & Robert Tamura, 2002. "How important are capital and total factor productivity for economic growth?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2002-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Joshua Hall & Robert Lawson, 2009. "Economic Freedom and Peace," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(4), pages 445-446, December.
- Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2011.
"How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?,"
IMF Working Papers
11/88, International Monetary Fund.
- repec:dgr:rugggd:no.5 is not listed on IDEAS
- Matthew T. Jones and Maurice Obstfeld., 1997.
"Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C97-094, University of California at Berkeley.
- Matthew T. Jones & Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data," NBER Working Papers 6103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Friedman, Milton, 1993. "The "Plucking Model" of Business Fluctuations Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 171-77, April.
- Bencivenga, V.R. & Smith, B.D., 1988.
"Financial Intermediation And Endogenous Growth,"
RCER Working Papers
124, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993.
"Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
- Paul W. Rhode, 2002. "Gallman's Annual Output Series for the United States, 1834-1909," NBER Working Papers 8860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ross Levine, 1997.
"Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
- Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kenneth, Rogoff, 2012. "This Time is Different, Again? The United States Five Years after the Onset of Subprime," MPRA Paper 51257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
- Toshiyuki Mizoguchi, 2005. "Estimates of the Long-run Economic Growth of Taiwan Based on Revised SNA," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-123, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48843. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.