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Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions !

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  • Thomas Grjebine
  • Fabien Tripier

Abstract

Accompanying the great recession, a recent empirical literature casts doubt on the existence of a positive relationship between economic and financial growth pointing out the economic costs of excessive financial growth. We show however that if one considers the complete growth cycle, that is by including expansions into a growth cycle accounting procedure, the elasticity between financial and economic growth rates is positive for most financial series, even if high financial growth makes recessions more severe. This elasticity should be however adjusted downward, and may even turn negative, if one considers the persistent effects of financial growth on the expansion of the subsequent cycle. This effect can explain the pattern of economic growth observed during and after financial bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2015. "Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions !," Working Papers 2015-31, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-31
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Business Cycles; Finance; Financial Cycles; Bubbles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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