IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wii/wpaper/140.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Cycles in Credit, Housing and Capital Markets: Evidence from Systemic Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Amat Adarov

    () (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

The study estimates aggregate financial cycles and segment-specific cycles for credit, equity, bond and housing markets of the USA, the UK, Germany and Japan over the period 1960-2015 using dynamic factor models with state-space techniques based on a range of variables conveying market price, quantity and risk dynamics. The analysis reveals a highly persistent and recurring nature of financial cycles reflecting the build-up of financial imbalances in each segment with an estimated average cycle duration of about ten years. The significant co-movements and spillovers that we find among many of the segment-specific cycles suggest that well-diversified financial systems are prone to the risks associated with the mutual amplification of nominal shocks via linkages between financial market segments, which needs to be taken into account in the design of policies addressing asset bubbles and financial imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Amat Adarov, 2017. "Financial Cycles in Credit, Housing and Capital Markets: Evidence from Systemic Economies," wiiw Working Papers 140, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/financial-cycles-in-credit-housing-and-capital-markets-evidence-from-systemic-economies-dlp-4379.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    3. Stremmel, Hanno, 2015. "Capturing the financial cycle in Europe," Working Paper Series 1811, European Central Bank.
    4. Alessi, Lucia & Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2016. "The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: stronger than thought," Working Paper Series 1967, European Central Bank.
    5. Bruce D. Smith & John H. Boyd, 1998. "The evolution of debt and equity markets in economic development," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(3), pages 519-560.
    6. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
    7. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-75.
    8. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Rey, Hélène, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    12. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, January.
    13. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Claudio Borio, 2013. "The Great Financial Crisis: Setting priorities for new statistics," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3-4), pages 306-317, July.
    16. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2015. "US Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," NBER Working Papers 21722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amat Adarov, 2018. "Estimation of Aggregate and Segment-specific Financial Cycles for a Global Sample of Countries," wiiw Statistical Reports 7, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Amat Adarov, 2018. "Financial Cycles Around the World," wiiw Working Papers 145, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial cycles; asset bubbles; financial stability; housing prices; equity; debt securities; credit; capital markets; spillovers; Kalman filter; factor models;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Customer service) or (Pavel Petrov). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/wiiwwat.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.