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Итоги 2017 Года: Некоторые Тенденции В Динамике Ряда Мировых И Российских Финансовых Индикаторов // Results Of 2017: Some Trends In The Dynamics Of The World And Russian Financial Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • M. Ershov V.

    (Financial university)

  • V. Tatuzov Yu.

    (Financial university)

  • A. Tanasova S.

    (Financial university)

  • М. Ершов В.

    (Финансовый университет)

  • В. Татузов Ю.

    (Финансовый университет)

  • А. Танасова С.

    (Финансовый университет)

Abstract

In this article, we analyzed the growth of many worlds and Russian financial indicators observed in 2017. Despite signs of improvement in the economic, monetary and financial sectors, the situation remains difficult and many risks still remain.The aim of the study is to formulate the main trends of the past year, giving grounds for a critical analysis of some of the official Russian forecasts for 2018–2020.In our analysis, we used economic and statistical research methods. The methodology consists of the collection and analysis of primary data, on the basis of which conclusions are drawn about a number of global trends. At the same time, it is taken into account that the study of the economic and financial history of the past year makes it possible to trace the positive evolution of many processes in the world and the Russian economy and finance. We chose for the analysis a number of indicators (real GDP growth, stock indices, exchange rates, key rates of central banks, etc.), which allowed to demonstrate clearly the improvement of the situation in the economy and finance of a number of countries in 2017 (including Russia). It is shown that the Russian economy demonstrates the connection with global trends. We also constructed the regression model for Russian inflation.One of the main results of our analysis is the specification of some risks taking into account the peculiarities of the current global economic recovery and the high dependence of the Russian economy and finance on external factors. Our analysis is important for improving the forecasts for finance and the economy of theRussian Federationas a whole.The research of many Russian and global indicators and trends shows that risks in the economy and finance of the Russian Federation may increase due to the potential global instability and new Western sanctions on Russia in 2018. This can occur given the expected continuation of the current policy of the Bank of Russia, and in defiance of some optimistic official forecasts. It is necessary to review the current monetary and fiscal policy in order to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors (including political ones). В статье анализируется наблюдавшийся в2017 г. рост многих глобальных и российских финансовых индикаторов. Несмотря на признаки улучшения положения в экономической, денежно-кредитной и финансовой сферах, ситуация остается непростой и многие риски сохраняются.Цель исследования — формулировка основных тенденций минувшего года, дающих основание для критического анализа некоторых официальных российских прогнозов на 2018–2020 гг.Используются экономико-статистические методы исследования. Методология заключается в сборе и анализе первичных данных, на основе чего сделаны выводы относительно ряда глобальных тенденций. При этом учитывается, что изучение экономической и финансовой истории минувшего года дает возможность проследить позитивную эволюцию многих процессов в мировой и российской экономике и финансах. Для анализа выбран ряд индикаторов (реальный прирост ВВП, фондовые индексы, валютные курсы, ключевые ставки центробанков и т.д.), которые позволили со всей отчетливостью продемонстрировать улучшение ситуации в экономике и финансах ряда стран в2017 г. (в том числе в России). Показано, что экономика РФ демонстрирует связь с глобальными тенденциями. Построена регрессионная модель по российской инфляции.Одним из основных результатов является определение некоторых рисков с учетом особенностей текущего глобального экономического подъема и высокой зависимости экономики и финансов РФ от внешних факторов. Проведенный анализ имеет значение для совершенствования прогнозов по финансам и экономике РФ в целом. Исследование многих глобальных и российских индикаторов и тенденций показывает, что риски в экономике и финансах РФ могут возрасти из-за вероятной глобальной нестабильности и новых западных антироссийских санкций в2018 г. Это может произойти с учетом ожидаемого продолжения нынешней политики Банка России, причем вопреки ряду оптимистических официальных прогнозов. Необходимо пересмотреть проводимую денежно-кредитную политику с целью снижения зависимости экономики РФ от внешних факторов (в том числе политических).

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ershov V. & V. Tatuzov Yu. & A. Tanasova S. & М. Ершов В. & В. Татузов Ю. & А. Танасова С., 2018. "Итоги 2017 Года: Некоторые Тенденции В Динамике Ряда Мировых И Российских Финансовых Индикаторов // Results Of 2017: Some Trends In The Dynamics Of The World And Russian Financial Indicators," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(2), pages 38-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2018:i:2:p:38-53
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    References listed on IDEAS

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