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Financial Cycles Around the World

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  • Amat Adarov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

The study analyses financial cycles based on a global sample of 34 advanced and developing countries over the period 1960Q1 to 2015Q4. We use dynamic factor models and state-space techniques to estimate financial cycles in credit, housing, bond and equity markets, as well as aggregate financial cycles for each country in the sample using a large number of variables conveying price, quantity and risk characteristics of respective markets. The analysis reveals the highly persistent and recurring nature of financial cycles, which tend to fluctuate at frequencies much lower than business cycles, 9‑15 years on average, and are indicative of major financial distress episodes. Our results point to notable intra-regional synchronisation, as well as nontrivial co-movement tendencies between European, American and Asian financial cycles. We also extract global and regional financial cycles, the former closely associated with the dynamics of the US T-bill rate and the VIX index, confirming the existence of common supranational factors governing the boom-bust dynamics of financial market activity around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Amat Adarov, 2018. "Financial Cycles Around the World," wiiw Working Papers 145, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:145
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    Cited by:

    1. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Financial cycles in Europe: dynamics, synchronicity and implications for business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 551-583, May.
    2. Amat Adarov, 2018. "Estimation of Aggregate and Segment-specific Financial Cycles for a Global Sample of Countries," wiiw Statistical Reports 7, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Adél Bosch & Steven F. Koch, 2020. "The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 145-173, June.
    4. Amat Adarov, 2019. "Dynamic Interactions Between Financial and Macroeconomic Imbalances: A Panel VAR Analysis," wiiw Working Papers 162, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Milan Christian de Wet, 2021. "Modelling the Australasian Financial Cycle: A Markov-Regime Switching Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, June.
    6. Škare, Marinko & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata, 2020. "Multi-channel singular-spectrum analysis of financial cycles in ten developed economies for 1970–2018," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 567-575.
    7. Shengnan Lv & Zeshui Xu & Xuecheng Fan & Yong Qin & Marinko Skare, 2023. "The mean reversion/persistence of financial cycles: Empirical evidence for 24 countries worldwide," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 11-47, March.
    8. Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policies and credit co-movement in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Malgorzata Porada - Rochon, 2020. "The Length of Financial Cycle and its Impact on Business Cycle in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1278-1290.
    10. Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial cycles; global and regional financial cycles; asset bubbles; housing prices; equity; debt securities; credit; capital markets; Kalman filter; factor models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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